Great Falls

Nothing exciting weatherwise for Great Falls on Tuesday. With upper level ridge building in things should be warm and dry. Brisk SE winds should help push high temperatures up 5-10 degress above normal. Things should become somewhat more interesting as the week progresses and the trough over the eastern Pacific moves in.

KGTF Discussion 10/08/2007

High pressure will be influencing the area tomorrow. Skies will be becoming more clear throughout the night, and as a result, the low should be somewhere near the low 40s just before sunrise. There will be a slight downslope influence on temperatures tomorrow, but slight warm air advection should allow temperatures tomorrow to climb higher than today. As a result of this and clear skies tomorrow, the high should be in the low to mid 70s. Don't go to low on the winds. Climatology suggests that this forecast site is historically windy. The max wind will probably be somewhere between 14-17kts tomorrow but even higher the next day.

KGTF 10/8

Large area SFC H situated over central N plains states. SSW flow becoming SW-WSW will bring a warming period for the short term. Gusts to 20+KT w/ tightened pressure gradient assoc. w/ SFC H. Weakened trough from weekend migrated NNW over N midwest leaving weak ridging behind it ahead of the next trough and deep L over PAC NW. Shallow CF becoming stationary and most likely weakening/dissipating WNW of forecast area, due to strengthening L offshore. FC temps should be higher than seasonal norms tomorrow(10/9) and becoming more seasonal midweek with oncoming baroclinic zone.

Great Falls Forecast Discussion

Large upper level trough currently digging into the Northwest United States. Strong southerly flow out ahead of approaching surface front in combination with high pressure over the central Rocky Mountains will lead to stiff southwest to south winds over the Rocky Mountain Front of northcentral Montana. Winds should continue through the forecast period and provide downslope heating and drying in the Great Falls area. Some high clouds will be in the area through the period due to the approaching trough but not enough to strongly effect the weather which will be dominated by the surface winds. Compressional heating from downslope off of the Belt Mountains will keep lows on Tuesday in the mid 40's and breezy conditions will persist into the afternoon, providing enough heating to take the temperature up into the 70's. Winds could gust as high as 30kt and a steady wind should stay between 15-20kt. No precipitation expected with strong drying at the surface and not much moisture available in the mid levels either. Some warm air advection will also keep the mid levels warm and keep the atmosphere stable.

Dann Cianca

KGFT Forecast Discussion

High pressure will dominate the region on Tuesday with above average temperatures. Low pressure & cooler temperatures will prevail late Wednesday through Saturday. High pressure will move back into the area on Sunday. Tuesday will be sunny & warm. A low pressure system will move into the area late in the day on Wednesday ushering in cooler temperatures, increasing cloudiness, & a slight chance of precipitation. 700mb temperatures will drop to 0 degrees Celsius by 0Z Thursday as a Pacific cold front passes through the district. This will translate to lows in the 30's F on Thursday morning. The better chances for precipitation will be confined to the mountains on Wednesday night. Clouds will decrease during the day Thursday, but high tempertures will reach only into the 50's to near 60 F. Clouds will increase again on Friday Night & Saturday with another slight chance of precipitation. Once again, the best chances for precipitation will be in the mountains. By Sunday, skies will clear with a ridge building into the area. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals Thursday through Sunday.

Miller

Cape Hatteras Discussion

A large upper-level ridge dominates over the eastern and central
portion of the United States. The jet stream should remain to north
over this region for the next few days at least. An amplified trough is
now observed over the Great Basin. It seems like this trough will have
a role in moving this big old ridge out of the eastern U.S. later on
this week sometime. In addition, a tropical easterly wave is bring
plenty of moisture over the Gulf Coast states. This tropical moisture
fetch should not make it over to the mid-Atlantic states until later on
this week.

The GFS model has the ridge moving off the coast
during the middle of the week and replacing it with a slight negatively
tilted trough. Temperatures should become more unseasonable towards the end of the week over KHSE. Winds will pick up as well. The best chance for precipitation accumulation seems to be Thursday evening and Friday morning. I'd give it a 33% chance of occurring. Will revise the WX discussion when it is deemed necessary or if time permits.


~Ng

This Time It Counts!

Greeting Fellow WxChallengers!

Welcome to another year of WxChallenge forecasting but to take a page from the MLB all-star game slogan: This Time It Counts! Last year, we joined during the middle of the school year and was not eligible for the season-ending tournament and overall best forecasting team. This year we are eligible for both categories. If you are interested in more information, it can be obtained at http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php.

I have not "dissected" the current pattern but I will write a brief discussion on Sunday. Remember forecast is due at 6:00 PM local time from Monday through Thursday. You can make a forecast for up to 3 days ahead. If you have any more question, please feel free to contact me at sng1@mscd.edu.

Hydrostatically Yours,

Doc Ng

P.S. Here are additional Info that could be beneficial to you.
Identifier KHSE
Normal High 80 - 76°F
Normal Low 67 - 63 °F
Normal Wind Speed 8.7 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.18"
Elevation 5.2 m


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