The Death of the El Nino.

Dr. Wagner pointed out to me that the present El Nino pattern is weakening quickly. What does that hold for our big March snowstorm in Denver? Who knows?! Time will tell...


NOAA Operational SST Anomaly for 24 October 2006


NOAA Operational SST Anomaly for 23 February 2007

~ Doc Ng

Greeting from Boring Tucson AZ!

It looks like zonal flow will dominate over SW US for the next few days. A disturbance is progged to move across the northern Great Basin but it will not affect TUS CWA
with respect to surface sensible weather. Although the southern portion
of the system could stir up the pressure gradient and causing gusty
condition forTUS for Tuesday.

Temperature will be seasonably warm. The lack of moisture (dew point temps hovering in the high teens and low 20s) and QG up-forcing will make predicting the low temperatures and winds the most challenging aspects for the next few days. According to the GFS, a weak SW trough will race across the TUS CWA on Thursday Night but I do not foresee any precipitation associated with this system.

~ Doc Ng

Additional Info:
Identifier KTUS
Normal High 70-72°F
Normal Low 43 - 44 °F
Normal Wind Speed 6 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.07-0.08"
Elevation 779 m

Here is a topo map of AZ.


Topographic Map of Arizona (courtsey of NGDC)

The Gospel according to Wagner:

Dr. Wagner wrote:

"As a whole, Metro represented well for INL.

San Antonio
Top 10% of forecasts: 0
Top 20%: 3 (jason, wagner, ng)
Top 30%: 6 (albert, katie, dann)
Top 50%: 23
Bottom 50%: 3

International Falls
Top 10% of forecasts: 4 (ng, wagner, albert, ryan abbott)
Top 20%: 8 (greg, dann, ganjou, jms)
Top 30%: 14 (katie, webwan, q15k12, strmsp, miller, hayden)
Top 50%: 23 Bottom 50%: 3
Category 1: Ng 4th, Wagner 6th out of 78
Undergraduates (Cat. 3 & 4): Albert 33rd, Abbott 43rd, Greg 87th out of >1100"

Top 5 Metro Forecasters for KINL

Here are the results:

1) Ng
2) Wagner
3) Kennedy
4) Abbott
5) Guillot

Best Group 3 forecaster: Kennedy

Best Group 4 forecaster: Stout

As a group, we did much better than SAT. Keep up the good work.


~ Doc Ng

KINL Final Day

MOS currently forecast the low tonight for KINL between 2-3, but with the WAA that will be in place tonight, I am leaning higher i.e. 4-6. GFS and NAM project 24 and 32 for the high tomorrow respectively, but I'm also leaning toward the higher temp forecasgt due to the WAA that will be in place tomorrow. The GFS forecast high of 24 seems too low in my eyes at this point. 32 may be a little high, but it seems more reasonable to me than 24. The consensus on the max winds seems to be between 13 and 16 knots, but anyone's guess in this range looks as good as any right now. I'm going to take another look at the winds later. There is also a snow storm moving in to KINL tomorrow night, and the GFS currently shows some precip accumulation of about .05 in the area by the end of the forecast period. I don't think it will be that high, but it wouldn't surprise me if they get .01-.02 inches by the end of the forecast period. Good luck to everyone in the final forecast for KINL!

Albert

Possible MLC System this WKND

Doc was talking about a system projected for this weekend. Early runs showed the mid level trough deepening/closing off over Desert SW. This L showed a progressive track through AZ-NM-OK panhandle. I'm looking at model runs and they are showing the L center developing over W WY and tracking SE. By SAT this L is projected to end up in the same spot (OK panhandle) but with a different origin. Have many of you seen this scenario much?

Models Diverging

It looks like the GFS and NAM have differnt solutions for the track of the Albert Clipper. GFS has it traveling a more southerly track while the NAM track is farther north.

Addenium:

It looks like the GFS will be the right solution.


~ Doc Ng