A large upper-level ridge dominates over the eastern and central
portion of the United States. The jet stream should remain to north
over this region for the next few days at least. An amplified trough is
now observed over the Great Basin. It seems like this trough will have
a role in moving this big old ridge out of the eastern U.S. later on
this week sometime. In addition, a tropical easterly wave is bring
plenty of moisture over the Gulf Coast states. This tropical moisture
fetch should not make it over to the mid-Atlantic states until later on
this week.
The GFS model has the ridge moving off the coast
during the middle of the week and replacing it with a slight negatively
tilted trough. Temperatures should become more unseasonable towards the end of the week over KHSE. Winds will pick up as well. The best chance for precipitation accumulation seems to be Thursday evening and Friday morning. I'd give it a 33% chance of occurring. Will revise the WX discussion when it is deemed necessary or if time permits.
~Ng
23 September 2007
21 September 2007
This Time It Counts!
Greeting Fellow WxChallengers!
Welcome to another year of WxChallenge forecasting but to take a page from the MLB all-star game slogan: This Time It Counts! Last year, we joined during the middle of the school year and was not eligible for the season-ending tournament and overall best forecasting team. This year we are eligible for both categories. If you are interested in more information, it can be obtained at http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php.
I have not "dissected" the current pattern but I will write a brief discussion on Sunday. Remember forecast is due at 6:00 PM local time from Monday through Thursday. You can make a forecast for up to 3 days ahead. If you have any more question, please feel free to contact me at sng1@mscd.edu.
Hydrostatically Yours,
Doc Ng
P.S. Here are additional Info that could be beneficial to you.
Identifier KHSE
Normal High 80 - 76°F
Normal Low 67 - 63 °F
Normal Wind Speed 8.7 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.18"
Elevation 5.2 m
View Larger Map
Welcome to another year of WxChallenge forecasting but to take a page from the MLB all-star game slogan: This Time It Counts! Last year, we joined during the middle of the school year and was not eligible for the season-ending tournament and overall best forecasting team. This year we are eligible for both categories. If you are interested in more information, it can be obtained at http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php.
I have not "dissected" the current pattern but I will write a brief discussion on Sunday. Remember forecast is due at 6:00 PM local time from Monday through Thursday. You can make a forecast for up to 3 days ahead. If you have any more question, please feel free to contact me at sng1@mscd.edu.
Hydrostatically Yours,
Doc Ng
P.S. Here are additional Info that could be beneficial to you.
Identifier KHSE
Normal High 80 - 76°F
Normal Low 67 - 63 °F
Normal Wind Speed 8.7 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.18"
Elevation 5.2 m
View Larger Map
01 May 2007
2007 Tournament Win-Loss Results
| W | L | T | % | |
| ngisok | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0.917 |
| rgw460 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.625 |
| albie1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.625 |
| kcrand | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0.417 |
| ganjou | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| bf1426 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| dannwx | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| foosj1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| webwan | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.375 |
| jms9wx | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.375 |
| miller | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.250 |
| snake1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| q15k13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| wxedvo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| weazel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| strmsp | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
Click here to see the final bracket reseults
See you next year.
~ Doc Ng
20 April 2007
Looks like the finals are set
Well, after the first three days of the semifinals, Dr. Ng is ahead of me by 4.7 points, and Katie is ahead of Dr. Wagner by 3.2 points. Looking at the distribution for what we all put in for our forecasts tomorrow, the most points that I could possibly make up on Dr. Ng is 3, and the most points Dr. Wagner could possibly make up on Katie is 2. Therefore, the finals will be between Katie and Dr. Ng. Best of luck to Katie in the finals! OK, good luck to Dr. Ng too! This weather challenge has been a lot of fun this year, and if you didn't get to do it this time, I really encourage you to get involved with it next semester.
15 April 2007
Semis are set!
It looks like Wagner/Candall in the top half of the bracket and Ng/Kennedy in the bottom half.
Click here to see the the round 2 results.
Click here to see the the round 2 results.
12 April 2007
Round 1 Results
Click here to see the brackets
frcstr day 1 day 2 total
rgw459 22.9 27.8 50.7
bf1426 20.6 32.8 53.4
q15k12 23.3 22.1 45.4
webwan 23.3 21.3 44.6
kcrand 10.1 27.8 37.9
wxedvo 18.6 37.8 56.4
dannwx 25.9 23.6 49.5
ganjou 18.6 25.3 43.9
foosj1 23.4 23.3 46.7
miller 14.1 30.8 44.9
ngisok 14.4 21.2 35.6
weazel 27.7 49.8 77.5
snake1 42.6 27.3 69.9
jms9wx 42.6 23.3 65.9
albie1 13.2 22.2 35.4
strmsp 17.5 39.8 57.3
frcstr day 1 day 2 total
rgw459 22.9 27.8 50.7
bf1426 20.6 32.8 53.4
q15k12 23.3 22.1 45.4
webwan 23.3 21.3 44.6
kcrand 10.1 27.8 37.9
wxedvo 18.6 37.8 56.4
dannwx 25.9 23.6 49.5
ganjou 18.6 25.3 43.9
foosj1 23.4 23.3 46.7
miller 14.1 30.8 44.9
ngisok 14.4 21.2 35.6
weazel 27.7 49.8 77.5
snake1 42.6 27.3 69.9
jms9wx 42.6 23.3 65.9
albie1 13.2 22.2 35.4
strmsp 17.5 39.8 57.3
07 April 2007
MSCD Tournament Seeds and Matchups
Rossby Bracket
1) rgw459 v. 16) bf1426
8) q15k12 v. 9) webwan
Palmen Bracket
2) albie1 v. 15) strmsp
7) snake1 v. 10) jms9wx
Petterssen Bracket
3) ngisok v. 14) weazel
6) foosj1 v. 11) miller
Moore Bracket
4) dannwx v. 13) ganjou
5) kcrand v. 12) wxedvo
http://clem.mscd.edu/~sng1/WxChallenge/Tournament_2007.htm
1) rgw459 v. 16) bf1426
8) q15k12 v. 9) webwan
Palmen Bracket
2) albie1 v. 15) strmsp
7) snake1 v. 10) jms9wx
Petterssen Bracket
3) ngisok v. 14) weazel
6) foosj1 v. 11) miller
Moore Bracket
4) dannwx v. 13) ganjou
5) kcrand v. 12) wxedvo
http://clem.mscd.edu/~sng1/WxChallenge/Tournament_2007.htm
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