Top 5 for ACY

1) Wagner
2) O'Brien
3) Webb
4) Guillot
5) Miller

Cat 1: Wagner
Cat 3: O'Brien
Cat4: LaRoche

Top 16

Rank Overall Score Forecaster
1. -2.620 rgw459
2. -1.757 albie1
3. -1.393 ngisok
4. -0.747 dannwx
5. -0.270 kcrand
6. 0.870 jms9wx
7. 0.883 foosj1
8. 1.297 snake1
9. 1.643 q15k12
10. 2.210 webwan
11. 2.710 miller
12. 2.753 ganjou
13. 4.160 wxedvo
14. 5.523 abbott
15. 6.930 weazel
16. 7.283 strmsp

My thoughts on KACY for what it's worth

It looks like KACY will be dry and slightly unseasonable temperature for our first day and then all crap will hit the fan. A Clipper system will re-intensify over the Mid-Atlantic states bringing a nice soaking rain to the Jersey coast.

Zonal flow aloft will dominate until the middle of the week when the clipper system arrives over PA/NJ. The UL low will intensity, creating a stronger area of divergence over the Mid-Atlantic states. Surface winds will be from the south to southwest as a high pressure will initially dominate off the Atlantic shoreline. After the high pressure moves out, again Atlantic City being situated in the warm sector of the ETC will still experience southerly/southwesterly flow. This will keep the temperatures above normal for the rest of the week.

~ Doc Ng

The overall top 16 Forecasters....so far!

Rank  Overall Score   Forecaster
    1.       -3.750         Wagner
    2.       -3.525         Ng
    3.       -2.215         Kennedy
    4.       -0.765         Cianca
    5.       -0.750         Foos
    6.       -0.500         Crandall
    7.       -0.300         Splitt
    8.        0.680         Guillot
    9.        1.645         O'Brien
   10.       1.680         Stout
   11.       2.055         Miller
   12.       2.340         Webb
   13.       2.355         Stauffer
   14.       2.735         Abbott
   15.       3.200         Howard
   16.       5.795         LaRoche

Best of the rest: Kevin C., Marta N., Mitch W., Paul F., Cutler, G. Kyle K., Dan K., Joradn E., Tony L., and Jon V.

Top 5 for Tucson

1) Kennedy
2) Cianca
3) Splitt
4) Wagner
5) Crandall

Top group 3 forecaster: Kennedy

Top group 4 forecaster: Stout

Let's go gambling from March 12 - 23, 2007.

Next site will be Atlantic City, NJ.

Also, thanks to daylight saving time, your forecast is due at 6:00 PM LDT instead of 5:00 LST. Thanks, President Bush!

Information:

Identifier KACY
Normal High 51-54°F
Normal Low 31 - 34°F
Normal Wind Speed 9 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.13-0.14"
Latitude 39.4494°N
Longitude -74.5672°W
Elevation 20 m

The ACY ASOS station and its location in relation to Atlantic City

~ Doc Ng

MSCD WX Challenge Tourney

Hey Gang:

Since we are not eligible for the final tournament this year, I figure we have our own in-house one. The top 16 forecasters from the METRO will vie for the best METRO forecaster title. The last forecast period (KTOP), which is slated for the WX challenge tournament, will be our tournament time as well. You can call it April Metro Madness. We are able to put in forecasts for this period so I will run our tournament on the side. The rules will be the same as the WX Challenge Tournament with the exception that 1st and 2nd rounds will consist of 2 forecasting days per round. The semifinals and final will consist of 4 forecasting days. For example, Round 1: Day 1-2, Round 2: Day 3-4, Semifinals: Day 5-8, and Final: Day 9-12.

April MSCD WX Madness Tournament

MSCD WX Challenge Tournament Rules
The rules for the April Metro Madness tournament are as follows:

* You may participate in the forecasting even if you are not in the tournament, or you have been eliminated. Your forecasts will still be scored and you will be able to see your results on the standard results pages.

* The entire tournament will take 3 weeks instead of 2 weeks. Thus, there will be 12 days of forecasting instead of 8.

* Each "round" consists of forecasting (as normal) for two consecutive days with the exception of the semifinal and final rounds which are 4 days in each round.

* Forecasts will be made on Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. There will be no forecasts on Wednesday, as it will be used to determine the winners before the next round in the 1st two rounds and a rest day thereafter.

* The forecaster with the lower combined (2-day or 4-day) score advances to the next round.

* If the forecaster with the lower score has entered fewer "human forecasts" (i.e. took guidance, missed a forecast, or took persistence) than their opponent, then they do not advance to the next round.

* In case of a tie, please see Tie Breaker Rules.

* Each round, scores are reset to 0 for all forecasters. However, on the standard results pages, the scores will continue to accrue as normal.

Tie Breaker Rules
In the case of a tie, the following rules will be applied in the following
order:

* The forecaster with the lower Day 2 or Day 4 score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined precipitation score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined wind speed score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined total score for the tournament advances.

* The forecaster with the lower seed advances.

Selection Criteria
The seeding will be based on your cumulative score on the WXChallenge results page.

I hope this will make it interesting for the rest of the semester.

Buoyantly Yours,

Doc Ng

Don't You Forget About the TROWAL!!

SPC has issued a high risk area for severe weather this afternoon over the SE US. Yes, most of you are as giddy as a kid on Christmas eve but give winter weather some love.

Look at the mosaic radar image for the Upper Mississippi River Valley, there is nice heavy snow band east of Sioux Falls, SD. This is associated with the trowal (trough of warm air aloft) feature. This is a classic case!

~ Doc Ng



Day 1 Convective Outlook valid for 1630Z on 01 March 2007 (courtesy of SPC)



NWS Radar Mosaic of the Upper Midwest Region from 1548 - 1658 UTC on 01 March 2007(courtesy of NWS)