KEAT Discussion

A big broad trough is anchored over the northern Pacific Ocean. Multiple shortwaves will pass through our forecast area for the upcoming week. The first system will produce a copious amount of rainfall for the windward side of the Cascade mountians Although residual precipiation may spill over to KEAT ASOS. The timing of this first event should start Monday night and end on Tuesday morning. This is right around the start of our first forecast period. The second disturbance seems to be packing more of a punch...at least according to the GFS and will bring an increase chance of precipitation over KEAT for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It is still too early to make any actual prediction for this second wave. Temperature should be right around the normal values for the week. The only concern I have is how much spillover precipitation does KEAT get with these onshore systems?

I "EAT" therefore I am

Let me drop you some knowledge on Wenatchee, WA:

Identifier: KEAT
Elevation: 1249 ft. / 380.7 m (surveyed)
From city: 4 miles E of Wenatchee, WA
Time zone: UTC -8
Normal High: 35-38°F
Normal Low: 24-27°F
Normal Precipitation: 0.05"
Normal Wind Speed: 7 knots

KEAT is located on the leeside of the Cascade mountains!

Climo Peak Wind Observation for KEAT (2003-2006)

Maximum Wind Histogram for Wenatchee, WA from 2002-2006 (courtsey of Dr. Wagner).
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Google Map of KEAT

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KPIA Forecast Discussion

Precipitation will end tonight, & above normal temperatures will occur on Tuesday & Wednesday with a zonal flow, but temperatures will fall to below normal on Thursday & Friday. After tonight, no precipitation will occur through Friday as the upper level flow will remain dry. A 500mb low will exit the region tonight bringing an end to the precipitation. A weak cold front will push through the region overnight ushering in northerly winds & drier air. However, on Tuesday, the winds will switch to the south-southwest & temperatures will warm into the low 60's F. Above normal temperatures will persist until late Wednesday when colder temperatures move into the region as a strong, dry northwest flow sets up across the region through Friday. Temperatures will fall to below normal readings on Thursday & Friday as highs reach only into the 40's F & lows fall into the 20's F. No precipitation is expected through Friday as the upper level flow remains dry.

Miller

11/12 KPIA Discussion

Peoria, IL received quite a bit of rain today meaning that the ground is going to be wet during tomorrow's forecast period. The models forecast the overnight low tonight to be in the lower 40's, but the combination of wet ground and clear skies tonight makes me think that the low might dip down into the upper 30's. As for the high tomorrow, the GFS is currently spitting out 65, but I don't think it is taking into account the wet ground adequately. NAM and NWS estimate of 63 for tomorrow seems more reasonable, but this too could be too high. The diurnal range of temperatures should be limited tomorrow and Wednesday, but drier air moving in during the end of the week should result in a higher diurnal temperature range. Cold air advection and drier air should also result in a lower low temperature Wednesday night with the cold air advection continuing throughout the day on Thursday resulting in a lower high temperature for the day Thursday.

KPIA by OB

Precipitation chances in Peoria are dropping rapidly after today's cold front passage. With some CAA, drier air, and clearing skies the temperature tonight should drop much lower than last night, but still be above normal. Tomorrow the winds should become southwesterly ahead of the next cold front, boosting the temperatures to well above normal until the front passes on Wednesday. Along with blustery WNW winds rather strong cold air advection behind this second front should drop temperatures significantly and they should remain below normal for the remainder of the week. The high temperature on Wednesday may be the trickiest part of this week depending on the timing of the frontal passage.
Go Eagles! (and take the Flyers with you)

KPIA Forcast Discussion

A surface cold front passed through on Monday afternoon, leaving cooler, drier air in its wake. Tuesday morning winds should be light and out of the north and the cooler air should pool in low lying areas (like along the Illinois River for example). Models seem to be running a bit high, so will go upper 30's for the low. Flow should begin to switch again to the south-southwest as the day progresses, returning some moisture to the area and moderating any heating under the clear skies. Again, thinking models are overestimating the high temperature, so will go low 60's.

As the week progresses, large surface low moves across the mountains infront of an upper level trough. Surface cold front should pass early on Wednesday and then high pressure should settle in with much cooler, and much drier air.

Forecaster: Cianca

KPIA

Short term:
11/13
Passing front and showers will give way to cooler air and clearing. 24-30 hour outlook shows clear skies and light winds from the N becoming WNW. A secondary frontal passage Tuesday will shift winds but I am in disagreement in that my feeling is the winds will stay predominantly from the W, with a possible WSW component.

Mid-Term:
11/14-17
Dual L pressure centers W of Continental US. N system moved off of the PAC NW into BC and has been forced NWard by the L pressure center holding off of the Baja Peninsula. Tropical L will continue to serve as a blocking pattern keeping zonal ML flow for the plains and CENT Midwest. A baroclinic zone in relation to the L over BC will weaken as the storm is forced into the colder airmass. Look for WED-THURS for this system to reintensify over the Great Lakes region. Strengthening P gradient assoc with the system to the North will bring windy/gusty contitions to FC area WED-THURS. LOW/NO POPS. Cooler air moving into the area WED night and stable airmass/radiational cooling should lower Low temps 10+ degrees.

Webb

My Latest Thinking/WX Discussion....

So, It looks like a pretty "blah" setup with respect to the precipitation. An Alberta Clipper will make its way across the Great Lakes area within the next 36 hours. The precipitation will stay north of PIA. High clouds could develop. KPIA will stay in the NWerly flow until the end of this week.

Middle of next week, a big system could move through this region bringing severe weather. Most of the supporting dynamics will be in the low- and mid-levels.

~ Doc Ng

We can hang with the big boys

So I did quick count and our top 5 forecasters score is 12th in the nation ahead of schools with bigger enrollment. Wagner and my scores are not part of team overall score so keep up the good work!

BTW, we are now 20th in nation overall! Let's show the academic world where Metro is!

~ Doc Ng

Day 1 KPIA Discussion

There is not much to talk about for Tuesday 06Z - Wednesday 06Z period. A weak ETC will start to intensify by Monday afternoon over the upper peninsula of Michigan. The main concern for the day one forecast will be the wind towards the beginning of the period.

(revised)
The coldest temperature of the day might occur towards the end of Day 1 forecast period.

~ Doc Ng

Home of Jim Thome and our next WX site

Here is the 411 on Peoria, IL:

Identifier: KPIA
Elevation: 660 ft. / 201.2 m (surveyed)
From city: 4 miles W of Peoria, IL
Time zone: UTC -6 during Standard Time
Normal High: 48-54°F
Normal Low: 31-35°F
Normal Precipitation: 0.10"

Climo Peak Wind Observation for KPIA (2003-2006)

Maximum Wind Histogram for Portland, ME from 2004-2007 (courtsey of Dr. Wagner).
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Google Map of KPIA

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Good Luck!!!

~ Doc Ng