11/12 KPIA Discussion

Peoria, IL received quite a bit of rain today meaning that the ground is going to be wet during tomorrow's forecast period. The models forecast the overnight low tonight to be in the lower 40's, but the combination of wet ground and clear skies tonight makes me think that the low might dip down into the upper 30's. As for the high tomorrow, the GFS is currently spitting out 65, but I don't think it is taking into account the wet ground adequately. NAM and NWS estimate of 63 for tomorrow seems more reasonable, but this too could be too high. The diurnal range of temperatures should be limited tomorrow and Wednesday, but drier air moving in during the end of the week should result in a higher diurnal temperature range. Cold air advection and drier air should also result in a lower low temperature Wednesday night with the cold air advection continuing throughout the day on Thursday resulting in a lower high temperature for the day Thursday.