Current MSCD Standing for the April Madness Tourney

The top 16 forecasters will be eligible for the local 2008 April Madness tournament.

Here is the current standing not including KMSP score.

1) ngisok (-3.654)
2) wagner (-2.834)
3) cianca (-2.069)
4) albie1 (-1.806)
5) obrien (-0.166)
6) jms9wx ( 0.517)
7) rissa3 ( 0.563)
8) ka8222 ( 0.767)*
9) bludot ( 1.422)*
10) bcote1 ( 1.493)
11) 1225bc ( 2.794)
12) s21rty ( 3.757)
13) crysis ( 4.137)
14) laine3 ( 4.320)
15) webwan ( 4.354)
16) baylor ( 4.593)
17) janke1 ( 4.816)
18) kylef5 ( 4.956)
19) jill31 ( 6.270)*
20) bfly31 ( 6.270)
21) tripp3 ( 7.204)
22) suaave (43.017)*
23) manutd (49.985)*

* denotes spring forecast contest entry and does not receive a drop for its final score.

Here are the rules:

The rules will be the same as the WX Challenge Tournament with the exception that 1st and 2nd rounds will consist of 2 forecasting days per round. The semifinals and final will consist of 4 forecasting days. For example, Round 1: Day 1-2, Round 2: Day 3-4, Semifinals: Day 5-8, and Final: Day 9-12.

MSCD WX Challenge Tournament Rules
The rules for the April Metro Madness tournament are as follows:

* You may participate in the forecasting even if you are not in the tournament, or you have been eliminated. Your forecasts will still be scored and you will be able to see your results on the standard results pages.

* The entire tournament will take 3 weeks instead of 2 weeks. Thus, there will be 12 days of forecasting instead of 8.

* Each "round" consists of forecasting (as normal) for two consecutive days with the exception of the semifinal and final rounds which are 4 days in each round.

* Forecasts will be made on Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. There will be no forecasts on Wednesday, as it will be used to determine the winners before the next round in the 1st two rounds and a rest day thereafter.

* The forecaster with the lower combined (2-day or 4-day) score advances to the next round.

* If the forecaster with the lower score has entered fewer "human forecasts" (i.e. took guidance, missed a forecast, or took persistence) than their opponent, then they do not advance to the next round.

* In case of a tie, please see Tie Breaker Rules.

* Each round, scores are reset to 0 for all forecasters. However, on the standard results pages, the scores will continue to accrue as normal.

Tie Breaker Rules
In the case of a tie, the following rules will be applied in the following
order:

* The forecaster with the lower Day 2 or Day 4 score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined precipitation score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined wind speed score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined total score for the tournament advances.

* The forecaster with the lower seed advances.

Selection Criteria
The seeding will be based on your cumulative score on the WXChallenge results page with the exception of the spring only particpants.

KMEM Day 8

Trough axis moves off to the coast today leaving WNW mid and upper level flow becoming more zonal. Models showing a weak SFL L approaching from the west creating weak southerly flow at the SFC . FC period is stable and seasonable. Mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid 70's. Winds strengthen as morning passes. Low temp at the beginning of the period.

-Webb

KMEM Day 7 Discussion

I have to give myself a big oops! I woke up this morning and realized that I was supposed to do a discussion for day 7 instead of day 6. Oops! Anyway, on with the discussion.

With cold air advection taking place tonight, both the GFS and NAM models currently forecast lows in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear following the passage of the low, and as a result, both the NAM and GFS currently forecast highs in the mid 60s during the afternoon. Since the low will be past by the time the forecast period for day 7 starts, winds will be much calmer than for day 6. Both GFS and NAM suggest that the maximum wind for the period will be 7-8 kts. The precipitation forecast has been tricky the past couple of days for the Memphis area, but we won't have to worry about that for day 7. Just put in 0 for your precip value. All in all, this will be a much less interesting forecast day than either day 5 or 6.

Kennedy

KMEM Day 6 Discussion

With WAA continuing during the beginning of the forecast period, the high for the period will be at the beginning of the period. Also expect the strongest winds during the very beginning of the period with values possibly topping 20 knots. Precipitation forecast will be tricky. Right now, the majority of the precipitation seems to be occurring north of the Memphis area, and the precipitation won't commence over Memphis until the low moves further east. Most of the models are currently forecasting over an inch of precipitation during the forecast period, and plenty of moisture will be drawn from the Gulf ahead of the low, but I still feel like precip forecasts above 1.2" will end up being too high. With cold air advection taking place toward the end of the period, the low will occur at the end of the period, and models currently suggest that the low will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Kennedy

KMEM Day 6 Forecast Discussion

This forecast discussion is for the period of 6Z to 6Z spanning the 19th and 20th of March and for the location of Memphis International Airport, in Memphis, Tennessee.

Currently (18th/15Z), a deep upper level trough is in place over the southcentral portion of the United States. High clouds already present in the Memphis area. This will be a precursor to the advancing shield of rain which should be ongoing or at least just beginning at the start of the forecast period. Models are in general agreement as to the slow pace of this this system as it propagates to the east. Ample moisture is being advected from the Gulf of Mexico and massive convergence along an almost-stationary boundary that will slowly work its way into the area should produce copious amounts of precipitation. Top that off with instability-driven thunderstorms and we could be looking at high rain amounts in the 2-3" range in the early morning hours. Precipitation should finally taper off toward the end of the forecast period and will be replaced by clearing skies and much cooler, drier air.

The GFS and WRF are in line with temperatures (except in the early morning hours) while the NGM is some place else entirely. As the GFS has been handling temperatures fairly well, the maximum temperature should occur at the very beginning of the forecast period and should be in the low 60's, unless the heavy rain begins before the forecast period starts ... which could trend to a slightly lower max (upper 50's). Temperatures should stay in the mid to lower 50's throughout the day without any heating. The warm temperature advection should be over by this time and the cloudcover and precipitation will reign for temperatures. The period minimum will come at the end of the period and depending on the clearing (radiational cooling) could get down into the lower 40's.

Pressure gradients will be strong at the beginning of the period and will weaken before tightening slightly in the afternoon. Could see sustained two-minute average winds above 20kts.


Cianca

Day 5 WX Discussion

A strong system is ejecting from the Rokcies today and will move through the Midwest in the next 48 hours. Strong upper-level dynamics will fuel this storm. Strong 850 mb southerly winds will be observed until Wednesday afternoon. The surface low is forecasted to track across Ohio River Valley. Best precip chance will be from tomorrow morning until Wednesday night with the max amount Wednesday morning. Futhermore, I would suggest keeping the low temperature for Day 5 slightly warmer with the strong WAA pattern occuring overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Doc Ng

KMEM Day 4 Forecast Discussion

This forecast discussion is for the period of 6Z to 6Z spanning the 14th and 15th of March and for the location of Memphis International Airport, in Memphis, Tennessee.

Finally, some actual "weather" to talk about. Zonal upper level pattern with a weak jet streak pointing directly at the forecast area will leave it in the left exit of the jet. Area will be favorable for upward vertical motion. Associated surface low seems to reflect this. Southerly winds ahead of surface trough will continue to advect moisture into the area and bringing dewpoints up into the 50's. With ascent and the forcing associated with the surface feature, the area will be favorable for precipitation, some convective. WRF is showing 1500J/kg of CAPE without any substantial cap at 00Z. Precipitable water levels are greater than 2" and forecast hodographs could support supercells possibly elevated if the area becomes more warm-frontal. Rain and hail should be the main threat, though some strong winds with storms could be possible. Models aren't really intensifying the low too much and show
another forming in Texas, so the front may linger back to the west and become stationary.

Warm airmass should be mostly intact, just more moist. Cloudcover will inhibit temperature, so the maximum will likely be in the upper 60's unless the clouds break enough to let the sun in for any period of time. In that case, which is less likely, the maximum could sneak into the lower 70's. The minimum will also be on the mild side. Cloudcover and the southerly flow should keep the temperature up (as well as the amount of moisture in the air inhibiting radiative cooling). If the clouds break at all, the temperature should dip into the mid 50's, if not, we'll see close to 60º.
Since the system won't get too strong, the pressure gradient won't be very large. The highest wind may come from thunderstorms, otherwise we won't see much more than 12-15kts.
As far as precipitation, we will undoubtedly see some. Thunderstorm amounts could touch 1" in places, though this will be hit or miss. Models, however, aren't going for more than half an inch total.

Cianca.

KMEM Day 3

It will be a great day for Bass fishing in Southwestern Tennessee on Wednesday. The Bass should be starting to stage for their pre-spawn pattern as the water temps rise into the mid 60's... Wait, this isn't a fishing report!

Southwesterly flow throughout the period will drive temps up into the low-mid 70's as well as keep the morning low quite mild. High SFC pressure continues to dominate the SE US with no weathermakers to speak of. Winds start out light and pick up a bit as the SFC heats into the afternoon.

Boring... can we get back to talking about Bass fishing?

-Webb

KMEM Day 2 Discussion

With high pressure expected to dominate throughout the forecast period, the models are in excellent agreement with regard to high and low temperature, wind, and precipitation. The precip forecast will be easy, even for novice forecasters. All you have to do is put a 0 in the space for precip when entering your forecast. The GFS and NAM both agree with a high in the low 70s and a low in the mid-40s. Both models also agree on the maximum wind for the period to occur during the afternoon with a peak of about 12 knots. With high pressure to the south and warmer air to the west of Memphis, some WAA will be present throughout the period allowing the high to reach the lower, to possibly mid-70s. The GFS and NAM currently forecast highs of 71 and 70 respectively, but I wouldn't be surprised if these were a little low. Drier air also has the ability to heat up better than moist air. The WAA present will also be the reason that the overnight low for day 3 will likely be much higher than the low for day 2.

Kennedy

KBUF Day 8 Discussion

First, overcast skies are forecast by both the GFS and NAM for the entire forecast period. Overcast skies during the beginning of the forecast period will provide some hindrance to cooling overnight, and both the GFS and NAM forecast lows in the mid-20s. Due to limited heating as a result of overcast skies, warm air advection is going to be the main factor in deciding on a forecast high. GFS currently shows some nice warm air advection beginning during the morning hours and lasting throughout the rest of the forecast period ahead of an approaching low. As a result of this, GFS currently forecasts a high near 37, and NAM currently forecasts a high near 35. At this point, I like the higher number for an initial guess as a forecast high to take the warm air advection into proper account. The overnight low for the forecast period should be a very safe bet for the low during the forecast period since warm air advection will delay colder temperatures until after the end of the forecast period. Winds will pick up during the afternoon and toward the end of the forecast period, and surface winds will be off of Lake Ontario at the end of the forecast period. Snow is likely at the end of the forecast period with models currently suggesting anywhere from .2 to .4 inches of liquid water equivalent. The models currently suggest however that the majority of the snow will occur after the end of the forecast period.

KBUF Day 7 Forecast Discussion

Models are running with surface cyclogenesis in the James Bay region (or slightly to the south) of Canada. Upper level dynamics support this as a broad trough has morphed into a desirable shape over the last 24 hours. The jet streak isn't all that it could be, but is forecast to strengthen.

The previous storm system will exit the area by the beginning of the forecast period, it's only lasting influence being the cold air advected during the previous period. Winds should have a westerly and southerly component for the next day, bringing in some warmer air. However, high clouds associated with approaching, strengthening system could limit heating. High temperatures should generally be expected in the upper 30's, maybe teasing 40ºF. As far as the low, it will come early in the period as the winds calm down a bit and before the clouds move in and inhibit cooling. Look for a minimum in the lower 20's. Winds should be generally light due to no significant pressure gradient and should reach a maximum during the afternoon mixing. Maximum 2min average should not exceed 15kts.

Precipitation is unlikely, though a brief flurry off of the lake is possible.


Cianca.

KBUF Day 6

High SFC pressure over the GLakes will hold the SFC flow northerly through the early afternoon Day 6. SFC high progression will turn SFC flow westerly in the afternoon. Strong winds tonight under the entrance region of jet max will settle to mid-teens KT for FC period with chance at max sustained coming with first reading of the period. Lack of solar heating will hold temps just below 30 for the entire FC period with the low coming in early am hours once mixing is somewhat slowed. Lingering LL cloud cover could produce light precip, but totals will be very low.

-Webb

Day 5 Discussion

Unseasonable temperatures over western NY will end tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. THE FROPA should be before the start of the forecast period. There will be light lingering precipitation through the early afternoon. A secondary low will form across the Ohio River Valley bring WAA aloft ahead of the warm front. Major icing and sleets will be the concern for the second half of the forecast period. Temperatures at the surface will remain steady throughout the day and into tomorrow night. The high temperature will be at the start of our forecast period so be careful.

Doc Ng