KBUF Day 8 Discussion

First, overcast skies are forecast by both the GFS and NAM for the entire forecast period. Overcast skies during the beginning of the forecast period will provide some hindrance to cooling overnight, and both the GFS and NAM forecast lows in the mid-20s. Due to limited heating as a result of overcast skies, warm air advection is going to be the main factor in deciding on a forecast high. GFS currently shows some nice warm air advection beginning during the morning hours and lasting throughout the rest of the forecast period ahead of an approaching low. As a result of this, GFS currently forecasts a high near 37, and NAM currently forecasts a high near 35. At this point, I like the higher number for an initial guess as a forecast high to take the warm air advection into proper account. The overnight low for the forecast period should be a very safe bet for the low during the forecast period since warm air advection will delay colder temperatures until after the end of the forecast period. Winds will pick up during the afternoon and toward the end of the forecast period, and surface winds will be off of Lake Ontario at the end of the forecast period. Snow is likely at the end of the forecast period with models currently suggesting anywhere from .2 to .4 inches of liquid water equivalent. The models currently suggest however that the majority of the snow will occur after the end of the forecast period.