The Death of the El Nino.

Dr. Wagner pointed out to me that the present El Nino pattern is weakening quickly. What does that hold for our big March snowstorm in Denver? Who knows?! Time will tell...


NOAA Operational SST Anomaly for 24 October 2006


NOAA Operational SST Anomaly for 23 February 2007

~ Doc Ng

Greeting from Boring Tucson AZ!

It looks like zonal flow will dominate over SW US for the next few days. A disturbance is progged to move across the northern Great Basin but it will not affect TUS CWA
with respect to surface sensible weather. Although the southern portion
of the system could stir up the pressure gradient and causing gusty
condition forTUS for Tuesday.

Temperature will be seasonably warm. The lack of moisture (dew point temps hovering in the high teens and low 20s) and QG up-forcing will make predicting the low temperatures and winds the most challenging aspects for the next few days. According to the GFS, a weak SW trough will race across the TUS CWA on Thursday Night but I do not foresee any precipitation associated with this system.

~ Doc Ng

Additional Info:
Identifier KTUS
Normal High 70-72°F
Normal Low 43 - 44 °F
Normal Wind Speed 6 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.07-0.08"
Elevation 779 m

Here is a topo map of AZ.


Topographic Map of Arizona (courtsey of NGDC)

The Gospel according to Wagner:

Dr. Wagner wrote:

"As a whole, Metro represented well for INL.

San Antonio
Top 10% of forecasts: 0
Top 20%: 3 (jason, wagner, ng)
Top 30%: 6 (albert, katie, dann)
Top 50%: 23
Bottom 50%: 3

International Falls
Top 10% of forecasts: 4 (ng, wagner, albert, ryan abbott)
Top 20%: 8 (greg, dann, ganjou, jms)
Top 30%: 14 (katie, webwan, q15k12, strmsp, miller, hayden)
Top 50%: 23 Bottom 50%: 3
Category 1: Ng 4th, Wagner 6th out of 78
Undergraduates (Cat. 3 & 4): Albert 33rd, Abbott 43rd, Greg 87th out of >1100"

Top 5 Metro Forecasters for KINL

Here are the results:

1) Ng
2) Wagner
3) Kennedy
4) Abbott
5) Guillot

Best Group 3 forecaster: Kennedy

Best Group 4 forecaster: Stout

As a group, we did much better than SAT. Keep up the good work.


~ Doc Ng

KINL Final Day

MOS currently forecast the low tonight for KINL between 2-3, but with the WAA that will be in place tonight, I am leaning higher i.e. 4-6. GFS and NAM project 24 and 32 for the high tomorrow respectively, but I'm also leaning toward the higher temp forecasgt due to the WAA that will be in place tomorrow. The GFS forecast high of 24 seems too low in my eyes at this point. 32 may be a little high, but it seems more reasonable to me than 24. The consensus on the max winds seems to be between 13 and 16 knots, but anyone's guess in this range looks as good as any right now. I'm going to take another look at the winds later. There is also a snow storm moving in to KINL tomorrow night, and the GFS currently shows some precip accumulation of about .05 in the area by the end of the forecast period. I don't think it will be that high, but it wouldn't surprise me if they get .01-.02 inches by the end of the forecast period. Good luck to everyone in the final forecast for KINL!

Albert

Possible MLC System this WKND

Doc was talking about a system projected for this weekend. Early runs showed the mid level trough deepening/closing off over Desert SW. This L showed a progressive track through AZ-NM-OK panhandle. I'm looking at model runs and they are showing the L center developing over W WY and tracking SE. By SAT this L is projected to end up in the same spot (OK panhandle) but with a different origin. Have many of you seen this scenario much?

Models Diverging

It looks like the GFS and NAM have differnt solutions for the track of the Albert Clipper. GFS has it traveling a more southerly track while the NAM track is farther north.

Addenium:

It looks like the GFS will be the right solution.


~ Doc Ng

Crying Fowl

Okay, I agree with the high temp, the max wind, and of course the precip for INL on day one ... but I think the low is bogus. It was at least -19ºF yesterday there. Maybe the COOP site is on a hillside? That would have been nice to know. International Falls, while topographically challenged, does sit in a small depression (thus the lake). Strange that it would have the highest low in the region that given morning ...

Sorry, just bitter.

Dann.

Looks like the ASOS is fixed

Here is the latest METAR:

KINL 131755Z AUTO 36007KT 10SM -SN CLR M17/M25 A3055 RMK AO2 SNB08E32B51 SLPNO P0000 60000 T11721250 58005

There goes my score...

Looks like my forecast for 2/13 is going to be climo. Damn it! I completely forgot about it until around 5:40.

Lets see:
High: 22
Low: -1
Precip:0.02

We'll see how I do with this I guess.

Temp Sensor at KINL

From WxChallenge.com:

Critical Notice
The WxChallenge is aware of the ASOS problems at KINL. The NWS in Duluth, MN has told us that it is just the temperature sensor that is broken and will be fixed/replaced tomorrow. The other variables (wind and precipitation) are working normally. The NWS is using a nearby COOP station (within 5 miles of KINL) to augment the temperature data in the climate reports. Until KINL's temperature readings are online for an entire 6 UTC to 6 UTC period, the official scoring will use the climate report data (nearby COOP station) for the high and low temperature (wind and precipitation will continue as normal).

General Wind Patterns/KINL

PAST 72HRS DATA SETS-MAX SUST WINDS 14MPH(THRICE) AVG SUST WIND 7.04MPH
FAST-RUNNING FROPA SOMETIME BTW 16-18Z 2/11 WITH NO SIG IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION/SPD. GENERAL FLOW W/NW. SAME FROPA SHOWED NO SIG DROP IN TEMP AS WELL AS AIRMASS TEMP VARIATION MINIMAL BTW MASSES.
AVG TEMP PRE 7 DS-HIGH 1-4
LOW 18-22
DIURNAL VAR 19-26 AVG 21
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST NEXT 48-60 HRS

Wind Chill

Do we know whether the instruments being used are affected by wind chill? Or is it just my best guess?

My two cents...

It looks like the ASOS at KINL is in need of maintenance. Beware of the scores for this period, they may not be correct initially.

A persistent upper-level trough remains anchor over the Great Lakes region. Northern Minnesota will remain in a NWerly flow for the next few days. The upper-level dynamics appear to be moving out of the region. With the NWerly flow the dominant pattern for the good part of this week, most of the sensible weather will track south of KMSP. A bitterly cold, Arctic air mass from central Canada is ready plunge south once again. This 1042 hPa surface high is progged to usher over the Dakotas by Wednesday night. The anticyclone as of 18Z Feb 2007 is located over northern Alberta province. Surfacetemperature this morning over The Pas (northwest of KINL in Canada) was -26.9 C (-16.42 F). According to the US Air force data there is a 10-20 cm of snow cover over KINL, so be careful of the radiational effect associated with snow (i.e. Albedo).


US Air Force Snow Depth Anaylsis


If the GFS verifies, the best chance of any precip will occur Thursday night into Friday morning as an Alberta Clipper moves over the CWA.


~ Doc Ng

Next Forecast Site: KINL

Two Words:

VERY COLD!

~ Doc Ng

Unoffical Results for KSAT

Top 5 forecasters:

1. Jason Foos
2. Dr. Wagner
3. Dr. Ng
4. Albert Kennedy
5. Katie Crandall

Best Freshmen/Sophomores: Jermey Stout

Best Juniors/Seniors: Jason Foos

Keep up the good work!

~ Doc Ng

Hard to see much of anything this morning as a very dense layer of fog overtook most of the Metro area. A fog bank only a few hundred feet deep lowered visibility to less than a quarter of a mile in many places along my route to campus. Even lower visibilites were reported elsewhere. Light snow fell on me in a few places, but C-DOT cameras from KMGH Channel 7 showed areas of heavy snow falling near Sante Fe and C-470. This snow was falling from the fog as the skies above the fog layer were clear. Most radar views showed no precip over the area as the beam was scanning over the fog and thus could not see the snow falling in that cloud layer. Pretty interesting stuff. None the less, here are a few shots from my venture in this morning...


Headlights from oncoming cars visible through the fog.


Traffic on Kipling at Mississippi in the fog.


Traffic on northbound Kipling just south of Alameda slowed by the thick fog.


Bank of the West buried in fog at Alameda and Wadsworth.


Thick fog over Alameda near Belmar.


Looking into a valley on Alameda near Sheridan.

Welcome to February all! You know what that means!! Severe weather season is one month closer and my storm chasing season is less than 60 days away! For you normal people, it means one month less of winter. Something I'm sure most of us could use a break from!

And you're going to get it... at least for the next few days! Temps will warm nicely into the 50s and maybe lower 60s with a downsloping wind helping with warming closer to the foothills (me in Lakewood oughta do niiiice). The next system looks to be moving into the area at the start of the weekend (is there a schedule for this that I'm missing) bringing with it a chance of snow with colder temps.

The last storm put us over our seasonal average for snowfall this season, and with two months left, we'll should do quite well in terms of the top snowfall seasons in Denver. The record is still a ways off at 118.7 inches (1908-1909), but it certainly is possible with the two snowiest months upcoming. As for current record breaking numbers, tomorrow will tie the 3rd longest amount of consecutive days with snow on the ground. If the warm weather doesn't melt all the snow before Wednesday, we'll take over the 3rd longest streak. If at least an inch of snow remains through the weekend, we could continue to add to that streak as there is a chance for more snow to fall. If we hit 61 days, we'll be in 2nd, but at that point, we'll be close enough to the 1983-1984 record of 63 days. As of yesterday, the official Stapleton measuring site had 9 inches. Is it enough of a buffer to stand up to the next few days? We shall see!

My thoughts for this week

Due to my busy schedule for this week I will be only doing this wx discussion. Hopefully more people will get involved in this discussion forum, especially the MTR 3410 class.

The GFS has a negative tilted trough placed over western US for the rest of the KSAT forecast period. The STJ seems to be less of a player for the up coming week over southern TX until maybe last forecast day. GFS hints at a fetch of higher theta-e being drawn up from the Gulf by Thursday. This could help to destabilize the atmosphere. My personal feeling is that showers and t'storms won't like to occur until maybe the last couple of forecast periods. If they do develop, storms will not be organized and will be the isolated type.