It seems like the GFS and NAM are in agreement with the UL low ejecting off out of SOCAL region and into the South Plains area during this forecast period. This low will become progressive. Also UL dynamics over KSAT between 12UTC 2/1 - 00UTC 2/2 are the strongest but still not ideal. Beware of the QPF!
Tomorrow high can be a touch and go situation. If the clouds break up and with westerly winds (hint hint WAA)..I can see the high temp reaching close to 70F but that is a big "IF".
~Ng
31 January 2007
30 January 2007
Whoops to Day 1; And Maybe a Bit Chilly
Whoops... looks like we all slipped a bit on Day 1. Glad to see I wasn't alone. Yeah, I looked at the highs earlier and shook my head. I still went with some rain for tomorrow as the imager is showing that moisture moving into the area. I certainly don't think it'll be a soaker, but enough to generate some precip over forecasting time. As for the winds, still getting a grasp on those. Ha! Waiting for some freak downburst to sustain winds at 50kts for long enough to blow my forecast out of whatever water I called for! LOL Fun stuff, though!
As for us (going back to something I know a bit better), latest indications are proving to be a bit cooler than I would've thought this time yesterday. My forecast for yesterday had us above 0 through the period into early next week. Now I find myself dropping lows into the minus area with highs still in the teens. I'm not ready to sink my teeth into single digit highs just yet due to winds and cloud cover, but I will certainly agree that colder temps are in store than I previously had thought.
Snow still looks iffy, but a few inches look possible over the next few days starting with tomorrow. A second round coming after the front passes late Thursday into Friday. Again, nothing too significant; just enough to keep our chance at seeing the consecutive snowfall on the ground record going. We should hit the top 3 at least, but I think the 60s are hard to come by with the advertisement of the warmer weather returning midweek.
As for us (going back to something I know a bit better), latest indications are proving to be a bit cooler than I would've thought this time yesterday. My forecast for yesterday had us above 0 through the period into early next week. Now I find myself dropping lows into the minus area with highs still in the teens. I'm not ready to sink my teeth into single digit highs just yet due to winds and cloud cover, but I will certainly agree that colder temps are in store than I previously had thought.
Snow still looks iffy, but a few inches look possible over the next few days starting with tomorrow. A second round coming after the front passes late Thursday into Friday. Again, nothing too significant; just enough to keep our chance at seeing the consecutive snowfall on the ground record going. We should hit the top 3 at least, but I think the 60s are hard to come by with the advertisement of the warmer weather returning midweek.
Verification of Winds
Note that the winds seem to be verified as the strongest 2-minute sustained winds for the day. This seems to be slightly higher sometimes (a knot or two?) than the hignest value from the hourly METARS.
The monthly climatology table (Preliminary Data F6 form) gives a brief overview of max winds over the past month. You can find this table at the local NWS forecast office web page. Go to climatology, local , Preliminary Climo Data, Latest, GO. Or look at archived for previous month's data.
The monthly climatology table (Preliminary Data F6 form) gives a brief overview of max winds over the past month. You can find this table at the local NWS forecast office web page. Go to climatology, local , Preliminary Climo Data, Latest, GO. Or look at archived for previous month's data.
Day 2 Thoughts
My gut feeling is that the precip for day 2 might be over-hyped. A strong STJ is still persistent over thhe South Plains/SE US. A shortwave which is very subtle on the NAM and GFS runs is schedule to move over south Texas on Thursday morning.
This SW feature is evident on the latest WV imagery. It is located over Northern Mexican Baja region. I think precip will be a better bet on Day 3 forecast. The jet dynamics is not conducive for strong UVM over KSAT for this period. Although, a tongue of higher theta-e air is just off the coast of TX and with 850 hPa S/SE winds prog for the period, instability can increase over the CWA. A chance of precip can not be ruled out.
In addition, since the high temp for day 1 was higher than expected, the low for tonight could be higher than MOS. Although, drier air will be entrained into the area by tonight bring the dew point values below 40F.
This SW feature is evident on the latest WV imagery. It is located over Northern Mexican Baja region. I think precip will be a better bet on Day 3 forecast. The jet dynamics is not conducive for strong UVM over KSAT for this period. Although, a tongue of higher theta-e air is just off the coast of TX and with 850 hPa S/SE winds prog for the period, instability can increase over the CWA. A chance of precip can not be ruled out.
In addition, since the high temp for day 1 was higher than expected, the low for tonight could be higher than MOS. Although, drier air will be entrained into the area by tonight bring the dew point values below 40F.
Day One Bust
Well...so much for my max/min temps. At 1600 UTC, the temp was 58F already. I was right about the precip amount at least...so far. The low pressure took a farther east trajectory than I had anticipated. I thought the system would move more of a NE path.
~Ng
~Ng
29 January 2007
06z 1/30 - 06z 1/31 initial thoughts
Overall pattern still remains the same as last week. Rex block still persists over the west coast. Strong STJ over the South Plains and SE US.
The low temperature I think will be lower than than the ETAMOS value. Closer to the GFS with the cold front passing through during the dawn hours. Although there is significant cloud cover over KSAT, the wind will not be still.
With the cloud cover overhead, I think using the 850 temp rule for a high temperature tomorrow would not be too bad. The surface wind should pick up over this period as the front approaches and passes. I think MOS values are a litte too high with the FROPA anticpated tomorrow morning. Although it is not a strong front, it should keep the temp lower than expected MOS values.
Precip chances will be low. I think Houston will get hammered but not KSAT. Nonetheless, a trace amount is possible. I do not see any possible isentropic upslope flow over KSAT.
~Ng
The low temperature I think will be lower than than the ETAMOS value. Closer to the GFS with the cold front passing through during the dawn hours. Although there is significant cloud cover over KSAT, the wind will not be still.
With the cloud cover overhead, I think using the 850 temp rule for a high temperature tomorrow would not be too bad. The surface wind should pick up over this period as the front approaches and passes. I think MOS values are a litte too high with the FROPA anticpated tomorrow morning. Although it is not a strong front, it should keep the temp lower than expected MOS values.
Precip chances will be low. I think Houston will get hammered but not KSAT. Nonetheless, a trace amount is possible. I do not see any possible isentropic upslope flow over KSAT.
~Ng
28 January 2007
Looks a bit chilly! Seems we could have a repeat of the cold snap we experienced last week. Perhaps even colder. GFS is hinting at highs in the single digits, but it looks as if we'll be on the backside of this cold air as even colder air will fill in through the midwest. We should start to moderate as the flow deamplifies towards the end of the weekend, but areas out east will remain very cold.
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