06z 1/30 - 06z 1/31 initial thoughts

Overall pattern still remains the same as last week. Rex block still persists over the west coast. Strong STJ over the South Plains and SE US.

The low temperature I think will be lower than than the ETAMOS value. Closer to the GFS with the cold front passing through during the dawn hours. Although there is significant cloud cover over KSAT, the wind will not be still.


With the cloud cover overhead, I think using the 850 temp rule for a high temperature tomorrow would not be too bad. The surface wind should pick up over this period as the front approaches and passes. I think MOS values are a litte too high with the FROPA anticpated tomorrow morning. Although it is not a strong front, it should keep the temp lower than expected MOS values.

Precip chances will be low. I think Houston will get hammered but not KSAT. Nonetheless, a trace amount is possible. I do not see any possible isentropic upslope flow over KSAT.


~Ng