Friday's Forecast for KCLE

Going into friday the low system continues to track slowly to the N-NE, with high pressure building behind it. Expect a slight chance of precip in the early hours, continually tapering off as the the day progresses. It will be mostly cloudly all day, and maximum temperatures should be lower than those for the past few days as a cold westerly flow advects into the area.

Thursday's KCLE Discussion

The period starts with a low over south eastern Missouri and as the period progresses the low moves north to almost NNW and late in the period turns east to move directly over KCLE. This will mean cooler temperatures and precipitation for the area. Both models agree on the track of the low, but differ on when the bulk of the precip will occur. The NAM as the majority falling Thursday morning while GFS is earlier and shows the precip dying down during this time. Either way the ground will be wet on Thursday with clearing ocurring with a turn to westerly flow Thursday evening. High temperatures will be a degree or two cooler with the cloud cover, but as the low moves east and the flow turns westerly cold air advection will kick.

Forecast discussion for Cleveland, Ohio; Wednesday Nov 18, 2009

The low pressure system presently lingering over lower Illinois and Indiana will drift into the Great Lakes area Wednesday into Thursday bringing light precipitation to the forecast area. Wednesday rainfall will only amount to about a tenth of an inch, this rate will increase on Thursday. High temperatures will remain in the mid 50's while lows will not drop below 40 degrees and winds will be steady around 14 knots. The moisture will last into Friday when a high pressure system should halt precipitation.

KCLE Week 2 Outlook

A big upper-level low over the middle of country will play a crucial role in KCLE WX pattern this week. This upper low will slowly make its way across over the the Great Lakes region by Wednesday/Thursday. This will bring temperatures back down towards normal values unlike what were observed last week. Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will dominate the sky coverage for much of the week. The best chance of measurable precip will likely to occur when the system passes over the forecast area on late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Light isentropic upglide (overrunning) precip will occur before the the system passage.



~Ng

Friday, November 13 KCLE weather discussion

Calm and pleasant weather conditions persist for Friday and Saturday. Friday, light fog is possible in the morning and should clear by noon so long as surface heating is not obstructed by cirrus cover. Expect highs around 60, lows in the upper 30's, light winds and a few degrees warmer on Saturday. Mild conditions last until Sunday when the high will drop to the lower 50's due to a low pressure system that could bring light precipitation.

Thursday Forecast for KCLE

Nothing exciting to report... 

Persistence forecast should hold ... conditions will be much like wednesday.  

High pressure system is dominating the region...expect cooler morning temperatures due to the clear skies and NE flow... will be breezy, so temperatures may feel cooler due to windchill

Expect clear skies and sunny conditions throughout the day... 

Thursday's KCLE Discussion

Persistence is the forecast for Thursday and Thursday night. With high pressure center over the region and a high amplitude ridge supporting it. This will cause sky's to be clear and winds to be calm. High temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than the pervious day with thicknesses rising, but lows will be able to plummet with the clear skies and calm winds.

Day 1 Outlook for Cleveland

A fast moving front cold front located over the IL/IN border will pass through KCLE right before the start of the day 1 forecast period. The part of the front that will make its way across northern OH will lack the necessary punch to create any significant precip. A high pressure will build in from the north after the FROPA and will dominate the weather for the rest of the forecast week. A mobile shortwave trough will create enough lift to create partly cloudy skies for the middle of the week. High temperatures are expected to be above seasonal while the lows will hover around the norms for the rest of the week.


For Day 2 - 4 discussion, please check back at noon each day.


~Dr. Ng

Three-year November Wind Climo Histogram

This histogram is created by Dr. Wagner.....maybe climo does have its advantage in forecasting.

Thanks, Dr. Wagner!



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Cleveland isn't so bad...is it?

Here is the 411 on KCLE:

Identifier KCLE
Normal High 51-47°F
Normal Low 37-34°F
Latitude 41.405683°N
Longitude -81.851915°W
Normal Wind Speed 9 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.11-0.12"
Elevation 245 m

KCLE is about 10km away from Lake Erie.


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In the end

Of all the things learned from this challenge it is that Stockton is really windy.

Friday's Discussion For Stockton

The period starts with a cut off low forming over the Baja and the upper level flow going from north west to west. There is a jet max approaching the northern California coast putting Stockton in the right the exit region. At the surface a cold front from a surface low in south eastern Alberta will approach the region with Stockton being on the very southern end of the front. Both NAM the GFS agree on the overall pattern and track of the front leaving Stockton in a questionable area of feeling any of the effects. Heights and thickness do fall so expect a cooler day and with the front staying north of the area not much of a pressure gradient to pick up winds. Low temperatures will be moderated by cloud cover with the associated system. With the placement of the jet and up level pattern, not expecting Stockton to see much of an effect from this system.

Day 7 Wx discussion

Strong upper level flow over the west coast today will bring cooler temperatures and higher winds tomorrow. Another indicator of impending cooler temperatures is the northwesterly flow and sky cover over the coast will that cause cool air advection over the forecast area. Fog is possible Thursday morning, lasting until the winds pick up mid day. Thursday temperatures will aproach 70 degrees, with lows around 50. Wind sustained around ten knots, will be gusty at times with mostly cloudy skies.

KSCK Weather Discussion for Wed Nov. 4th.

Conditions are going to be similar to today. Clear skies throught the morning, followed by upper level cloud ahead of the approaching cold front. As the ridge that has dominated the area moves easward, winds will shift to the SW, and continue to be light. Models predicting the High temperature to be less than tuesday.

Stockton Gala Days

Day 5 WX Discussion:

A board ridge remains off the western coast of the US. Winds will be remain light through our Day 5 forecasting period. Temperatures will stay above normal through this period.

~Doc Ng