10 December 2007

The current standing through the Fall semester

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Fortunately they can take comfort in knowing that "Hail to the Redskins" will not be too hard to sing as they can claim it to be a severe weather report.

07 December 2007

Possible enhanced precipitation due to the release CSI for 12/7 -12/8 2007

As you know, the release of CSI can cause enhanced precipitation bands. It looks like tonight Denver and the surrounding area are sitting under a region favorable for CSI to occur. Looking at the LL wind veering and the pseudo-adiabatic characteristic of the sounding from this morning, it all points to "Conditional Symmetric Instability!" In addition, we are sitting underneath the anticyclonic side of a jet as well. Although condition is favorable it does not mean we will get enhanced snowfall. These CSI-induced bands are very small scale with respect to size and time. They are rarely larger than 50 km in width and never last longer than 3-4 hours. My thinking for this weekend is that the snowfall tonight should not be too bad with the exception of few isolated areas which could see up to 6" or more snowfall, while most areas will see 1-3". Saturday night with the better upslope setup, we should see more snowfall across the Front Range area overall.

12z DNR Sounding for 07 December 2007

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12z 300mb UA analysis for 07 December 2007

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21z 300mb RUC initialization for 07 December 2007

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03 December 2007

Wenatchee 12/6

Things will calm down significantly in Wenatchee weatherwise on Thursday. Westerly flow will turn NNW after passage of a cold front early Thursday. Airmass is somewhat colder and drier behind the front, but not drastically so. Not much chance of precipitation after the FROPA. High temperature should be around 36 while the low should be around 30. Winds will remain light from the NNW around 5 knots.

KEAT Discussion 06Z to 06Z 12/04/2007

Strong flow off of the Pacific will provide moisture over the area, although the amount of moisture reaching KEAT will not be near as great as areas to the west of the mountains. This flow will keep the diurnal temperature range fairly low and give a decent chance of precipitation especially during the early part of the forecast period. Models are suggesting that slight warm air advection will cause the temperature to slightly increase in the time leading up to the beginning of the forecast period, so the low temperature will likely be in the mid 30's. Overcast skies will keep the temperature from reaching too high tomorrow, so the high temperature will likely be in the mid 40's.

KEAT Day 2 (December 5th 6Z-6Z)

Upper level winds flatten out as the jet stream slowly moves to the south. No real curvature to indicate "weather-making" opportunities. Wednesday will be a brief respite from the seemingly continuous barage of storms buffetting the Washington/Oregon Coast. Surface winds look to have a southwestern to southerly component but without much velocity. Some high clouds will exist within turbulence in the upper level westerlies interacting with the mountains. Temperatures should remain mild with the high clouds and slight compressional warming. Lows should remain slightly above freezing with highs teasing 40.

Cianca

KEAT Long Term 12/7 6Z-12/8 6Z

Passing of PAC L Tues will leave lingering precip until Wed evening possibly into Thurs Morning. Weak High pressure building behind system will provide clearing and cooling. SFC H pused ENE onshore through FC period. Point temps for KEAT will be as follows: Fri AM low BTW 18F and 22F with Low temps arriving before daybreak. Highs Fri will peak BTW 33F and 37F. Lows Fri Night should bottom out at BTW 24 and 27F. Winds will be light out of the WNW due to mean H pressure ridge over central Pacific, becoming E/ESE for a period with possible SFC H to the North of FC area in BC/Alberta. No POPS for Fri FC period. Next good POPS coming Sat NT/SUN morn for FC area.

Prelim: H 36
L 25
Max Sustained Wind: 7KT
Prec: 0.00

-Webb