My gut feeling is that the precip for day 2 might be over-hyped. A strong STJ is still persistent over thhe South Plains/SE US. A shortwave which is very subtle on the NAM and GFS runs is schedule to move over south Texas on Thursday morning.
This SW feature is evident on the latest WV imagery. It is located over Northern Mexican Baja region. I think precip will be a better bet on Day 3 forecast. The jet dynamics is not conducive for strong UVM over KSAT for this period. Although, a tongue of higher theta-e air is just off the coast of TX and with 850 hPa S/SE winds prog for the period, instability can increase over the CWA. A chance of precip can not be ruled out.
In addition, since the high temp for day 1 was higher than expected, the low for tonight could be higher than MOS. Although, drier air will be entrained into the area by tonight bring the dew point values below 40F.
MSCD group discussion on the upcoming weather pattern gearing towards the Wx Challenge contest and MTR forecasting labs. Other weather enthusiasts are welcome to chime in on our discussion.
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