KMEM Day 4 Forecast Discussion

This forecast discussion is for the period of 6Z to 6Z spanning the 14th and 15th of March and for the location of Memphis International Airport, in Memphis, Tennessee.

Finally, some actual "weather" to talk about. Zonal upper level pattern with a weak jet streak pointing directly at the forecast area will leave it in the left exit of the jet. Area will be favorable for upward vertical motion. Associated surface low seems to reflect this. Southerly winds ahead of surface trough will continue to advect moisture into the area and bringing dewpoints up into the 50's. With ascent and the forcing associated with the surface feature, the area will be favorable for precipitation, some convective. WRF is showing 1500J/kg of CAPE without any substantial cap at 00Z. Precipitable water levels are greater than 2" and forecast hodographs could support supercells possibly elevated if the area becomes more warm-frontal. Rain and hail should be the main threat, though some strong winds with storms could be possible. Models aren't really intensifying the low too much and show
another forming in Texas, so the front may linger back to the west and become stationary.

Warm airmass should be mostly intact, just more moist. Cloudcover will inhibit temperature, so the maximum will likely be in the upper 60's unless the clouds break enough to let the sun in for any period of time. In that case, which is less likely, the maximum could sneak into the lower 70's. The minimum will also be on the mild side. Cloudcover and the southerly flow should keep the temperature up (as well as the amount of moisture in the air inhibiting radiative cooling). If the clouds break at all, the temperature should dip into the mid 50's, if not, we'll see close to 60º.
Since the system won't get too strong, the pressure gradient won't be very large. The highest wind may come from thunderstorms, otherwise we won't see much more than 12-15kts.
As far as precipitation, we will undoubtedly see some. Thunderstorm amounts could touch 1" in places, though this will be hit or miss. Models, however, aren't going for more than half an inch total.

Cianca.