KMEM Day 6 Discussion

With WAA continuing during the beginning of the forecast period, the high for the period will be at the beginning of the period. Also expect the strongest winds during the very beginning of the period with values possibly topping 20 knots. Precipitation forecast will be tricky. Right now, the majority of the precipitation seems to be occurring north of the Memphis area, and the precipitation won't commence over Memphis until the low moves further east. Most of the models are currently forecasting over an inch of precipitation during the forecast period, and plenty of moisture will be drawn from the Gulf ahead of the low, but I still feel like precip forecasts above 1.2" will end up being too high. With cold air advection taking place toward the end of the period, the low will occur at the end of the period, and models currently suggest that the low will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Kennedy