Tuesday's Discussion For KAMA

The period starts with the western US under a 500mb ridge and a deep trough just moving onshore. The 0z GFS shows a short wave ejecting out of the trough with surface low pressure, and precipitation forming by the end of the period. The NAM does not show this and is thus much drier. There is enough moisture and instability that afternoon storms are quite possible even without upper level support. Temperatures rise a few degrees from Monday with a little increase in thickness and heights.