KERI Thursday, December 08, 2011

High pressure dominates the area for a short while longer before a series of features come together during the day on Thursday.  There is still some slight differences between the models, but the overall picture suggests a decent Lake Effect snowstorm to form on Thursday afternoon/evening.  The combination of a strong cold front, combined with a jet max overhead, and a vorticity field to the south all suggest the creation of a significant snow event for the region.

The exact position of where the snow will fall is still somewhat questionable, depending on where all of the ingredients come together, but for now,  a 30% chance of snow is sufficient for the late afternoon, with increasing chances as the evening progresses.  There is some suggestion that the bulk of the snow will be to the south and east of the Erie area.

For Wednesday night/Thursday morning, 20% snow . Lows in the upper 20's, West wind around 10 kts.  Thursday: Highs in the mid 30's with increasing chances of snow as the day progresses along with increasing winds to around 15-20 kts.