JAX Week 2 Outlook

Onshore flow will dominate as a strong, large anticyclone settles over the northeast/mid-atlantic states. A station boundary remains over central FL from the satellite and surface analyses. Light rain should be a concern for the early of the week. Wednesday into Thursday, a progressive, cutoff low will skim to the north of the forecast area bring it a better chance of heavier rain. Temperatures should remain in the low to mid 80s during the day and upper 60s during the night. With an onshore flow, wind speed could be slightly higher than the forecasted value.


Doc

First Day Forecast and etc (not extratropical cyclone)

An upper level disturbance will create a challenge for the first weather forecast of the semester. Mid-level clouds should persist into Tuesday as the mid-level is fairly unstable. Scattered T-storms will erupt across the greater part of central FL. An isolated T-storm could initiate over northern FL and create a precipitation forecast nightmare. High temperature should reach into the mid-80s for Monday and Tuesday while the low temperature will be slightly above average for this time of the year. Winds should be weak through the first forecast period. Any measurable precipitation will be scattered therefore, I am leaning towards a lower end value.

Later on in the week as the surface trough remains over central FL, the best chance of significant rain will be south of Orlando and beyond. I don't foresee a dramatic shift in the temperature and pattern for the next 48 hrs.


JAX CLIMO:

Identifier KJAX
Normal High 80-83°F
Normal Low 62-65 °F
Elevation 10 m
Normal Precipitation 0.14-0.21"



Good luck!

Doc Ng

Cinderella story and drama are the story lines for the Semis

Round 2 results:

Janke (15.0) v. Splitt (17.5)

O'Brien (16.0) v. Kennedy (17)

Cianca (7.5) v. Anderson (43.1)

Sanford (8.5) v. Wagner (11.0)

Semi matchups are:

Janke (16) v. O'Brien (5)

Cianca (3) v. Sanford (7)

Remember this whole week for the semifinals, you must forecast for Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

Good luck to the survivors!

~ Doc Ng

Round 2

Round 2 results can be viewed at http://clem.mscd.edu/~sng1/WxChallenge/Tournament_2008_results.htm

Good Luck to the survivors!


~Doc Ng

Final MSCD Standing and Tournament Seedings

The top 16 forecasters will be entered for the 2008 MSCD April Madness tournament.

Here is the final standing.

1) ngisok (-3.189)
2) wagner (-2.704)
3) cianca (-1.539)
4) albie1 (-1.286)
5) obrien ( 0.230)
6) ka8222 ( 0.480)*
7) rissa3 ( 0.734)
8) jms9wx ( 1.367)
9) bcote1 ( 1.645)
10) bludot ( 1.996)*
11) 1225bc ( 2.547)
12) s21rty ( 3.446)
13) laine3 ( 3.468)
14) crysis ( 4.204)
15) webwan ( 4.421)
16) janke1 ( 4.928)
17) baylor ( 5.222)
18) kylef5 ( 5.766)
19) bfly16 ( 6.866)
20) tripp3 ( 7.680)
21) jill31 (10.244)*

* denotes spring forecast contest entry and does not receive a drop for its final score.

The 1st and 2nd rounds will consist of 2 forecasting days per round . The semifinals and final will consist of 4 forecasting days.

Round 1: Day 1-2 (April 7-8), Round 2: Day 3-4 (April 10-11), Semifinals: Day 5-8, and Final: Day 9-12.

REMEMBER: If you advance pass the 1st round, there is no forecast on Wednesday but instead you will need to make forecast for Friday.

Tournament Matchups

Rossby Bracket
1) Ng vs. 16) Janke
8) Splitt vs. 9) Cote

Palmen Bracket
2) Wagner vs. 15) Webb
7) Sanford vs. 10) Young

Petterssen Bracket
3) Cianca vs. 14) LaRoche
6) Anderson vs. 11) Carr

Moore Bracket
4) Kennedy vs. 13) Emerson
5) O'Brien vs. 12) Lingaard

2008 MSCD April Madness Bracket

View Larger Image


Best of Luck!


Doc Ng

KMSP Day 8 Discussion

Models are currently in pretty good agreement about the low temperature for this forecast period. The GFS and NAM currently forecast 34 and 33 respectively for the low. The models disagree however on the high. GFS and NAM currently forecast 58 and 53 for the high respectively. I tend to think that 58 is more reasonable with some warm air advection coming in from the west. Maximum wind is forecast by the models to be somewhere between 12 to 15 knots, and there should also be no precipitation to worry about during this forecast period.

Kennedy

KMSP Day 7 Forecast Discussion

This forecast discussion is for the period of 6Z to 6Z spanning the 3rd and 4th of April and for the location of Minneapolis/Saint Paul International Airport, in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Pattern shifts from zonal to a hint of trough over the forecast period as the area experiences some height falls. At the surface, the dominate anticyclone to the east will slowly move away with the upper level action. A surface cyclone, which should develop over the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas will eventually swing up to the northeast, but should keep its weather far to the south of Minnesota. The wind field should continue to be from the south with an eventual swing to the west. Some high level clouds could be in the area from the developing storms to the south, but the day looks seasonal. Without much moisture to work with, highs could easily reach the low 50's. Lows shouldn't dip much below freezing either as a few clouds and the southerly wind component won't allow them to drop much further. Pressure gradient never really amps up, so expect winds to be rather light unless substantial differential heating over areas of snowpack, frozen lakes, or cloud shadows causes some good mixing.

Cianca.