New York, NY

KJFK's observations are taken at John F Kennedy International Airport as shown in the image below.




Since this is a coastal location, you may find sea temperatures to be useful.

Central Atlantic temperatures can be found here: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html

Temperatures further north can be found here: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/natl.html

Some Quillayute-y Information

The town of Quillayute is actually really small. The ASOS is at the airport which basically serves the towns of Forks (to the east) and La Push (to the west, on the Coast). The elevation is 192ft and is in hilly, but not mountainous terrain, close to the coast.

Latitude: 47.93750; Longitude: -124.55500

Here is a link to the sea surface temperature at La Push:
(EDIT: The last link I posted was for historical data. This site has buoy data under "current weather" Sorry for the confusion)
http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/la-push-washington.html
That might be useful in your forecast, especially when you suspect the wind to be off the water.

Click the image below to get a general overview of the area:

JAX Week 2 Outlook

Onshore flow will dominate as a strong, large anticyclone settles over the northeast/mid-atlantic states. A station boundary remains over central FL from the satellite and surface analyses. Light rain should be a concern for the early of the week. Wednesday into Thursday, a progressive, cutoff low will skim to the north of the forecast area bring it a better chance of heavier rain. Temperatures should remain in the low to mid 80s during the day and upper 60s during the night. With an onshore flow, wind speed could be slightly higher than the forecasted value.


Doc

First Day Forecast and etc (not extratropical cyclone)

An upper level disturbance will create a challenge for the first weather forecast of the semester. Mid-level clouds should persist into Tuesday as the mid-level is fairly unstable. Scattered T-storms will erupt across the greater part of central FL. An isolated T-storm could initiate over northern FL and create a precipitation forecast nightmare. High temperature should reach into the mid-80s for Monday and Tuesday while the low temperature will be slightly above average for this time of the year. Winds should be weak through the first forecast period. Any measurable precipitation will be scattered therefore, I am leaning towards a lower end value.

Later on in the week as the surface trough remains over central FL, the best chance of significant rain will be south of Orlando and beyond. I don't foresee a dramatic shift in the temperature and pattern for the next 48 hrs.


JAX CLIMO:

Identifier KJAX
Normal High 80-83°F
Normal Low 62-65 °F
Elevation 10 m
Normal Precipitation 0.14-0.21"



Good luck!

Doc Ng

Cinderella story and drama are the story lines for the Semis

Round 2 results:

Janke (15.0) v. Splitt (17.5)

O'Brien (16.0) v. Kennedy (17)

Cianca (7.5) v. Anderson (43.1)

Sanford (8.5) v. Wagner (11.0)

Semi matchups are:

Janke (16) v. O'Brien (5)

Cianca (3) v. Sanford (7)

Remember this whole week for the semifinals, you must forecast for Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

Good luck to the survivors!

~ Doc Ng

Round 2

Round 2 results can be viewed at http://clem.mscd.edu/~sng1/WxChallenge/Tournament_2008_results.htm

Good Luck to the survivors!


~Doc Ng

Final MSCD Standing and Tournament Seedings

The top 16 forecasters will be entered for the 2008 MSCD April Madness tournament.

Here is the final standing.

1) ngisok (-3.189)
2) wagner (-2.704)
3) cianca (-1.539)
4) albie1 (-1.286)
5) obrien ( 0.230)
6) ka8222 ( 0.480)*
7) rissa3 ( 0.734)
8) jms9wx ( 1.367)
9) bcote1 ( 1.645)
10) bludot ( 1.996)*
11) 1225bc ( 2.547)
12) s21rty ( 3.446)
13) laine3 ( 3.468)
14) crysis ( 4.204)
15) webwan ( 4.421)
16) janke1 ( 4.928)
17) baylor ( 5.222)
18) kylef5 ( 5.766)
19) bfly16 ( 6.866)
20) tripp3 ( 7.680)
21) jill31 (10.244)*

* denotes spring forecast contest entry and does not receive a drop for its final score.

The 1st and 2nd rounds will consist of 2 forecasting days per round . The semifinals and final will consist of 4 forecasting days.

Round 1: Day 1-2 (April 7-8), Round 2: Day 3-4 (April 10-11), Semifinals: Day 5-8, and Final: Day 9-12.

REMEMBER: If you advance pass the 1st round, there is no forecast on Wednesday but instead you will need to make forecast for Friday.

Tournament Matchups

Rossby Bracket
1) Ng vs. 16) Janke
8) Splitt vs. 9) Cote

Palmen Bracket
2) Wagner vs. 15) Webb
7) Sanford vs. 10) Young

Petterssen Bracket
3) Cianca vs. 14) LaRoche
6) Anderson vs. 11) Carr

Moore Bracket
4) Kennedy vs. 13) Emerson
5) O'Brien vs. 12) Lingaard

2008 MSCD April Madness Bracket

View Larger Image


Best of Luck!


Doc Ng