Severe weather is not out of the question for the forecast period and actually quite likely. The trough axis will stay west of the FC area due to a blocking L in the great lakes region. FC area downstream of UL trough will give substantial UL forcing along with L-ML speed and directional shear. CAPE values above 500 and near 1000 are not OOQ with minimal capping but enough for T-Storm development. Most severe weather will stay N and W of the FC area but Storm cell tracking especially late afternoon into the evening will be essential for southern Louisiana. T-storms will move out of the FC area along with the CF late Thursday night taking POPS with. Updates will be needed to evaluate precip amounts. Overrunning ahead of the CF should bring showers early in the day. High near 70 mid afternoon with the low coming at the end of the period at or near 50 degrees F. Strong winds related to the SFC based convection and FROPA with speed values in the mid 20'sKT. Precip amounts for the forecast period anywhere between .20 and 1.0".
-Webb
MSCD group discussion on the upcoming weather pattern gearing towards the Wx Challenge contest and MTR forecasting labs. Other weather enthusiasts are welcome to chime in on our discussion.
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