KMSY Discussion relevant from 06Z to 06Z Day 2 of Wx Challenge

Look for FROPA around 04-05Z (10:00-11:00 CST) just before the start of the forecast period. As a result of this, no precip should be expected during this forecast period since the precip is going to be ahead of this front. Pressure gradient forcing will cause some very windy conditions following FROPA, so look for strongest winds to be toward the beginning of the forecast period (possibly upwards of 24-26kts, gusting higher). GFS suggests that the overnight low could get down to 41. While this is certainly possible, looking at the models right now makes me think that a low of 43-45 is more plausible. If it were less windy and less mixing were taking place during the beginning of the forecast period during the overnight hours, then 41 would be more plausible in my mind. It is worth noting however that the surface wind will likely be out of the north during the beginning of the forecast period and Lake Pontchartrain does lie to the north of New Orleans. Since the wind will be off of the lake tomorrow morning, I went ahead and checked the water temperature of the lake, and it is approximately 49 degrees. Taking into account the fact that much mixing will be taking place with high winds at the beginning of the forecast period and that the wind at the surface will be off of the lake to the north (i.e. slightly more moist air than would otherwise be present with the absence of a lake to the north) makes me think that the low temperature during the beginning of the forecast period might be a tad higher than the models are currently suggesting. As for the high temperature during the forecast period, cooler air will move into the area following the passage of the front, so the high won't be anywhere near the high for today (1/29). However, since this air will be dry with dewpoints in the lower 30s (low dewpoints for a coastal area such as New Orleans), it will take less energy to heat up this drier air as opposed to the more normal moist air, so the high will likely be able to reach into the mid-50s. GFS is the highest forecast high right now of anybody with 57, and NAM is the lowest with 51. With dry air and clear skies in the area during the morning and afternoon hours of the forecast period, the GFS solution with regard to the high temperature makes more since to me at this point. If not 57 exactly, the high should be closer to 57 than 51. The wind will also be dying down during the course of the forecast period further suggesting to me that the high will be closer to 57 than 51. Hope this gives you all some things to think about while making your forecast, and good luck to everyone participating this semester in the Weather Challenge!