KBUF Day 4

Cold air dominates the entire area of the NE US. ULTrough axis moves through today bringing a short period of ML zonal flow before a weak shortwave arrives Fri afternoon. FC area ahead of shortwave and below jet max along with southerly winds at the surface most of Friday will bring instability and UL forcing. Precip. should begin mid day and accumulations should be light. Temps will warm in comparison to the last couple days and should top out in the low-mid 30's. Low temp at beginning of period and will most likely mirror the Depoint temp. Wind will strenghten in the early afternoon hours as the SFC pressure gradient strenthens.

-Webb

KBUF Day 3 Discussion

KBUF will be influenced by some cold air advection at the beginning of the period, and as a result, all the models suggest that the overnight low will be in the single digits. A couple of the models are suggesting that the low could dip down to 6. Warm air advection should commence toward the end of the forecast period, but the GFS and the NAM both suggest that the strongest warm air advection should occur near the very end of the forecast period while the NGM suggests that the brunt of the warm air advection will occur earlier. As a result, the GFS and NAM currently forecast highs of 16 and 15 respectively while the NGM currently forecasts a high of 19. The GFS and the ETA seem to be in strong agreement on the timing of the commencement of the warm air advection, so at this point, I would favor this solution. It should be noted that due to the forecast warm air advection at the end of the forecast period, there is a slight possibility that the high temperature for the forecast period may not occur in the afternoon when it usually does. The models are currently suggesting that the afternoon high temperature and the temperature at the end of the forecast period are going to be very close. As for the wind, the GFS and the NAM both suggest that the stongest wind for the forecast period will occur around early to mid-afternoon, but these two models do differ slightly on the maximum value. GFS currently forecasts a max of 9kts, and the NAM currently forecasts a max of 12kts. At this point, I tend to favor the higher value. With the storm moving out that gave Buffalo some snow, today's precip forecast should be easy. No new precip is expected by any of the models during this forecast period.

Kennedy

KBUF Day 2 Forecast Discussion

Strong storm system currently chowing down on the Northeast United States. Both ETA and GFS models in agreement about pacing of the system and have been handling it well so far, so will keep a good mind to the track as it exits the CONUS. Plenty of wrap-around moisture available with this system, so even though it will be off coast by mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will still be around. Winds will be from the north and eventually shift to a more westerly component. Though buffalo is not on the direct coast of Lake Ontario, the lake (water temperatures in the mid-thirties) will have allow for precipitation enhancement during the forecast period. An additional two to three inches of snow could fall, but will not compare with today's amounts. Very cold airmass to the north and plenty of cold air advection will keep temperatures down considerably with a daytime heating max struggling to reach 20ºF. In fact, the high should come at the very start of the forecast period and will likely be in the mid to lower twenties. As far as a low temperature, again, look to the end of the forecast period. Continuing cold air advection, but clearing skies and calmer winds will see the temperature drop into the low teens. On to the wind, the NGM is showing higher winds during the day, but the temperature values seem a bit silly ... so will ignore that model for now. The max gradient should occur in the morning hours when the CAA is the strongest.

Cianca.

KBUF Day 1 Discussion

"Big Storm Coming!" -Dr. Ng

Surface low currently over eastern Kansas, Upper level low northwest with isallobaric maximum to the east. The GFS has the low dipping south slightly before deepening and making its way up the east coast. The wind will definitely increase as the isobars tighten and the pressure gradient increases. The ETA seems to be in agreement with the low placement just off the coast. Precipitation should start around lunch time, if not, slightly after (ETA). High winds off of the ocean should ensure plenty of moisture for this storm. MOS data points to about category 2-3 precip amounts and highs in the mid to upper 30s, lows in the upper 20s. Overcast and precip totals should limit daytime heating.

The Bri and Karissa Experience.

KCEC Day 8

The (Feb 21st 00z) GFS has the upper level and surface lows stacked right off the coast of Oregon at the start of the forecast period. The low should weaken and ride northward along the coast. Precipitation in association should be ongoing at this point and be sustained by instability and forcing introduced by weak coat-tails shortwave pushing through. The shortwave is followed by slight ridging in advance of the next, more powerful storm system that will impact the area over the weekend. So, toward the end of the period, precipitation should diminish and then stop, making way to partly cloudy skies and subsidence. Winds should be initially strong with a decent gradient at the beginning but eventually weaken after the sun rises. The very beginning of the forecast period should see the strongest winds, possibly approaching a two-minute average of 15-20kts. The most recent GFS MOS(6z) has stepped up winds in the early period, contrasting it with the much lower estimation from the Eta MOS. We'll see some cold air advection after 12z or so and that will keep temperatures down, but not too far considering the wind will be off the water. The forecast period temperature minimum should come at the very end of the period with clear skies and light winds, plus some good radiational cooling with the ground being fairly wet from earlier rains will get the temperature down into the lower 40's.. The maximum temperature will not do much to surpass 50ºF. Rainfall amounts are hard to predict considering it will come from a shared storm from the day before. A half of an inch would not be out of the question.

Cianca.

KCEC Day 7

Another tricky forecast for Thursday folks. Not much int he way of curveballs coming, just more unpredictable precip amounts. Throw a number out there and watch those totals amaze like day 5. More southerly winds ahead of another PAC CF which is likely to pass in the early morning hours Friday, triggering rain showers ahead of it that should sustain throughout the day Thurs. Highs will be of the persistant variety and lows should do about the same. Winds will be southerly and somewhat light but will become higher with the tightening gradient ahead of the PAC L. Max wind values will come at the end of the period.

-Webb

KCEC Day 6 Forecast Discussion

Precipitation will be moving through the area throughout the day on Tuesday, and some of this precipitation will likely occur into the early part of the forecast period on Wednesday. Skies will likely be very cloudy or completely overcast during the period with flow coming in off the Pacific. With this flow off of the Pacific during the period, the low for the forecast period will likely not be able to get quite as low as the models are projecting right now, and the high will likely not be able to get quite as high as the models are projecting right now. A closer range for the diurnal maximum and minimum seems more reasonable as well given the flow off the Pacific and the overcast skies. Maximum wind will likely occur soemtime during the early to mid-afternoon hours with a maximum wind somewhere near 14 to 15 knots.