KBUF Day 2 Forecast Discussion

Strong storm system currently chowing down on the Northeast United States. Both ETA and GFS models in agreement about pacing of the system and have been handling it well so far, so will keep a good mind to the track as it exits the CONUS. Plenty of wrap-around moisture available with this system, so even though it will be off coast by mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will still be around. Winds will be from the north and eventually shift to a more westerly component. Though buffalo is not on the direct coast of Lake Ontario, the lake (water temperatures in the mid-thirties) will have allow for precipitation enhancement during the forecast period. An additional two to three inches of snow could fall, but will not compare with today's amounts. Very cold airmass to the north and plenty of cold air advection will keep temperatures down considerably with a daytime heating max struggling to reach 20ºF. In fact, the high should come at the very start of the forecast period and will likely be in the mid to lower twenties. As far as a low temperature, again, look to the end of the forecast period. Continuing cold air advection, but clearing skies and calmer winds will see the temperature drop into the low teens. On to the wind, the NGM is showing higher winds during the day, but the temperature values seem a bit silly ... so will ignore that model for now. The max gradient should occur in the morning hours when the CAA is the strongest.

Cianca.