KBUF Day 3 Discussion

KBUF will be influenced by some cold air advection at the beginning of the period, and as a result, all the models suggest that the overnight low will be in the single digits. A couple of the models are suggesting that the low could dip down to 6. Warm air advection should commence toward the end of the forecast period, but the GFS and the NAM both suggest that the strongest warm air advection should occur near the very end of the forecast period while the NGM suggests that the brunt of the warm air advection will occur earlier. As a result, the GFS and NAM currently forecast highs of 16 and 15 respectively while the NGM currently forecasts a high of 19. The GFS and the ETA seem to be in strong agreement on the timing of the commencement of the warm air advection, so at this point, I would favor this solution. It should be noted that due to the forecast warm air advection at the end of the forecast period, there is a slight possibility that the high temperature for the forecast period may not occur in the afternoon when it usually does. The models are currently suggesting that the afternoon high temperature and the temperature at the end of the forecast period are going to be very close. As for the wind, the GFS and the NAM both suggest that the stongest wind for the forecast period will occur around early to mid-afternoon, but these two models do differ slightly on the maximum value. GFS currently forecasts a max of 9kts, and the NAM currently forecasts a max of 12kts. At this point, I tend to favor the higher value. With the storm moving out that gave Buffalo some snow, today's precip forecast should be easy. No new precip is expected by any of the models during this forecast period.

Kennedy