Day 1 Discussion

Terrain will play a role in forecasting for the next two weeks so be careful.

A large upper-level ridge is positioned over western Canada. This ridge will break down as a strong shortwave trough forces its way into the Pacific NW. The Polar Front Jet will remain quite active during the forecast period over the same region. Along the coast of California, an inverted trough has developed and will remain in place for the next 36 hrs.

The models are in disagreements over the temperature and wind. The high temperature for the Day 1 forecast will be slightly above normal according to the GFS while the Eta has the temperature steady through the first part of the period and dropping to its lowest point at the end. The wind speed also varies between the models as well with GFS producing higher wind speed at the end of the Day 1 forecast. Although the Eta has precip in its forecast, I do not think the precip will be a significant amount. It would be wise to leave your precip amount as 0.00.

Doc Ng