KMSY Discussion for 06Z to 06Z Day 7 of WX Challenge

Drier air will be moving into the greater New Orleans area tomorrow following the departure of the system that will be bringing precip into the area today. Winds will not be bringing in vast amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico during day three as will likely be the case today. Also following the departure of the disturbance, winds will be calmer on day 3 with surface winds likely maxing out around 10-11kts. The GFS and the NAM both agree on the high for day 3 at 62, but disagree somewhat on the forecast low. GFS currently forecasts a low of 46, and NAM currently forecasts a low of 39. During the overnight hours, surface winds will be shifting to out of the north most likely meaning that the surface winds will be blowing off of Lake Pontchartrain. Given this and the fact that I don't see the kind of cold air advection I'd like to see in order for the low to get down into the 30s, I think a low somewhere in the low to possibly mid-40s is more likely. However, dewpoints will probably be low enough, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a low somewhere in the low 40s. With dry air in place during day 3, no rain is expected during the forecast period.