Day 1 WX Discussion

An ETC is progged to intensify across the south-central US from Tues to Wed. The system should make its way across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio river Valley as it marches across the country. The low temperature for KMSY should remain above normal as a strong LL southerly flow will bring in an ample amount along with warmer temperature from the Gulf. Early morning LL cloudcover should give away to sunshine during the early afternoon. CAPE values will approach 1200 J/Kg with slight LL veering. Isolated storms will develop ahead of the cold front. Convective initialization withthis first batch of precip will be the key. The FROPA passage will be a difficult decision as well. Presently, it is forecasted to occur between Day 1 and Day 2 period. As the front approaches, a second round of steadier precip will fall on KMSY.

Doc Ng