KBUF Day 4

Cold air dominates the entire area of the NE US. ULTrough axis moves through today bringing a short period of ML zonal flow before a weak shortwave arrives Fri afternoon. FC area ahead of shortwave and below jet max along with southerly winds at the surface most of Friday will bring instability and UL forcing. Precip. should begin mid day and accumulations should be light. Temps will warm in comparison to the last couple days and should top out in the low-mid 30's. Low temp at beginning of period and will most likely mirror the Depoint temp. Wind will strenghten in the early afternoon hours as the SFC pressure gradient strenthens.

-Webb

KBUF Day 3 Discussion

KBUF will be influenced by some cold air advection at the beginning of the period, and as a result, all the models suggest that the overnight low will be in the single digits. A couple of the models are suggesting that the low could dip down to 6. Warm air advection should commence toward the end of the forecast period, but the GFS and the NAM both suggest that the strongest warm air advection should occur near the very end of the forecast period while the NGM suggests that the brunt of the warm air advection will occur earlier. As a result, the GFS and NAM currently forecast highs of 16 and 15 respectively while the NGM currently forecasts a high of 19. The GFS and the ETA seem to be in strong agreement on the timing of the commencement of the warm air advection, so at this point, I would favor this solution. It should be noted that due to the forecast warm air advection at the end of the forecast period, there is a slight possibility that the high temperature for the forecast period may not occur in the afternoon when it usually does. The models are currently suggesting that the afternoon high temperature and the temperature at the end of the forecast period are going to be very close. As for the wind, the GFS and the NAM both suggest that the stongest wind for the forecast period will occur around early to mid-afternoon, but these two models do differ slightly on the maximum value. GFS currently forecasts a max of 9kts, and the NAM currently forecasts a max of 12kts. At this point, I tend to favor the higher value. With the storm moving out that gave Buffalo some snow, today's precip forecast should be easy. No new precip is expected by any of the models during this forecast period.

Kennedy

KBUF Day 2 Forecast Discussion

Strong storm system currently chowing down on the Northeast United States. Both ETA and GFS models in agreement about pacing of the system and have been handling it well so far, so will keep a good mind to the track as it exits the CONUS. Plenty of wrap-around moisture available with this system, so even though it will be off coast by mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will still be around. Winds will be from the north and eventually shift to a more westerly component. Though buffalo is not on the direct coast of Lake Ontario, the lake (water temperatures in the mid-thirties) will have allow for precipitation enhancement during the forecast period. An additional two to three inches of snow could fall, but will not compare with today's amounts. Very cold airmass to the north and plenty of cold air advection will keep temperatures down considerably with a daytime heating max struggling to reach 20ºF. In fact, the high should come at the very start of the forecast period and will likely be in the mid to lower twenties. As far as a low temperature, again, look to the end of the forecast period. Continuing cold air advection, but clearing skies and calmer winds will see the temperature drop into the low teens. On to the wind, the NGM is showing higher winds during the day, but the temperature values seem a bit silly ... so will ignore that model for now. The max gradient should occur in the morning hours when the CAA is the strongest.

Cianca.

KBUF Day 1 Discussion

"Big Storm Coming!" -Dr. Ng

Surface low currently over eastern Kansas, Upper level low northwest with isallobaric maximum to the east. The GFS has the low dipping south slightly before deepening and making its way up the east coast. The wind will definitely increase as the isobars tighten and the pressure gradient increases. The ETA seems to be in agreement with the low placement just off the coast. Precipitation should start around lunch time, if not, slightly after (ETA). High winds off of the ocean should ensure plenty of moisture for this storm. MOS data points to about category 2-3 precip amounts and highs in the mid to upper 30s, lows in the upper 20s. Overcast and precip totals should limit daytime heating.

The Bri and Karissa Experience.

KCEC Day 8

The (Feb 21st 00z) GFS has the upper level and surface lows stacked right off the coast of Oregon at the start of the forecast period. The low should weaken and ride northward along the coast. Precipitation in association should be ongoing at this point and be sustained by instability and forcing introduced by weak coat-tails shortwave pushing through. The shortwave is followed by slight ridging in advance of the next, more powerful storm system that will impact the area over the weekend. So, toward the end of the period, precipitation should diminish and then stop, making way to partly cloudy skies and subsidence. Winds should be initially strong with a decent gradient at the beginning but eventually weaken after the sun rises. The very beginning of the forecast period should see the strongest winds, possibly approaching a two-minute average of 15-20kts. The most recent GFS MOS(6z) has stepped up winds in the early period, contrasting it with the much lower estimation from the Eta MOS. We'll see some cold air advection after 12z or so and that will keep temperatures down, but not too far considering the wind will be off the water. The forecast period temperature minimum should come at the very end of the period with clear skies and light winds, plus some good radiational cooling with the ground being fairly wet from earlier rains will get the temperature down into the lower 40's.. The maximum temperature will not do much to surpass 50ºF. Rainfall amounts are hard to predict considering it will come from a shared storm from the day before. A half of an inch would not be out of the question.

Cianca.

KCEC Day 7

Another tricky forecast for Thursday folks. Not much int he way of curveballs coming, just more unpredictable precip amounts. Throw a number out there and watch those totals amaze like day 5. More southerly winds ahead of another PAC CF which is likely to pass in the early morning hours Friday, triggering rain showers ahead of it that should sustain throughout the day Thurs. Highs will be of the persistant variety and lows should do about the same. Winds will be southerly and somewhat light but will become higher with the tightening gradient ahead of the PAC L. Max wind values will come at the end of the period.

-Webb

KCEC Day 6 Forecast Discussion

Precipitation will be moving through the area throughout the day on Tuesday, and some of this precipitation will likely occur into the early part of the forecast period on Wednesday. Skies will likely be very cloudy or completely overcast during the period with flow coming in off the Pacific. With this flow off of the Pacific during the period, the low for the forecast period will likely not be able to get quite as low as the models are projecting right now, and the high will likely not be able to get quite as high as the models are projecting right now. A closer range for the diurnal maximum and minimum seems more reasonable as well given the flow off the Pacific and the overcast skies. Maximum wind will likely occur soemtime during the early to mid-afternoon hours with a maximum wind somewhere near 14 to 15 knots.

Day 1 KCEC Discussion

A line of showers associated with a cold front will move into the area tomorrow late morning to early afternoon. Winds will be southerly most of the day along will an overcast sky coverage. Temperature will be moderate for the forecast period in the low 50s during the day and low 40s during the early morning. Wind prediction could be a concern as the front approaches the wind speed will vary greatly.


Ng

KCEC Day 4 Discussion

First, skies are forecast to be clear by all models throughout the forecast period. Air will be fairly dry with the wind blowing towards the Pacific, and look for this drier air to allow the overnight low temperature to drop into the neighborhood of the upper 30s. At this point, both the NAM and the GFS suggest the low to be in the upper 30s. Winds will be likely be calm during this period, and with the clear skies and dry air, it is certainly possible for the high to reach the upper 50s. At this point, the GFS suggest a high near 54, and the NAM suggests a high near 59. 59 might be a tad high, but given the likely dry air and calm winds resulting in plenty of sunshine during the day, this is certainly possible. If I had to make my day four forecast right now, I would probably put my high at about 57 or 58, but we'll see what the models spit out tomorrow and see if there are any major changes. Clear skies will also result in no precipitation for the forecast period, so don't be like that one dude I saw today who put in 20 inches of rain for his forecast. That's just stupid.

KCEC Day 3 FD

High pressure is the name of the game, dominating the forecast period. Gradient will gradually loosen through the day, easing off on the wind. As the high moves on shore, the wind direction should shift from north to a more easterly component. This could cause some compressional warming off of the Klammath Range. With all the subsidence, precipitation is out of the question and unless the wind really dies, cloud cover should be at a bare minimum.

Morning low could drop into the mid-30's with any calming over night. The colder, drier airmass supports this. As far as the high, clear skies, with offshore winds and compression, we could see upper 50's, maybe even 60º. As far as wind, the gradient should decrease, but differential heating (between land and ocean) in the afternoon could cause a good breeze.

Cianca

KCEC Day 2

High pressure ridging over Pac keeps UL pressure gradient N of general FC area. Blocking pattern off Baja keeps ridge in place until Tuesday evening where a weak SW will begin to prog. through Wash and BC. FC area stays S of trough but with axis moving through, could set up a weak baroclinic zone just north of the area along with a bit of weak UL forcing. Look for partly skies Wed with Highs in the low 50's and Lows following the dewpoint at around 40 F. Winds will be Northerly and will strengthen a bit as the afternoon progresses. Max sustained around 10KT. Light rain/drizz is possible in the early morning. but accumulations will be insignificant.

-Webb

Day 1 Discussion

Terrain will play a role in forecasting for the next two weeks so be careful.

A large upper-level ridge is positioned over western Canada. This ridge will break down as a strong shortwave trough forces its way into the Pacific NW. The Polar Front Jet will remain quite active during the forecast period over the same region. Along the coast of California, an inverted trough has developed and will remain in place for the next 36 hrs.

The models are in disagreements over the temperature and wind. The high temperature for the Day 1 forecast will be slightly above normal according to the GFS while the Eta has the temperature steady through the first part of the period and dropping to its lowest point at the end. The wind speed also varies between the models as well with GFS producing higher wind speed at the end of the Day 1 forecast. Although the Eta has precip in its forecast, I do not think the precip will be a significant amount. It would be wise to leave your precip amount as 0.00.

Doc Ng

Wind Climo for KCEC from 2003-2007

Climo Peak Wind Observation for KCEC (2003-2007)

Maximum Wind Histogram for Crescent City, CA from 2003-2007 (courtsey of Dr. Wagner).
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Crescent City, CA - KCEC

Here is the 411 on Jack McNamara Field Airport (Crescent City, CA)

Identifier: KCEC
Elevation: 57 ft. / 17.4 m (surveyed)
From city: 3 miles NW of CRESCENT CITY, CA
Time zone: UTC -8
Normal High: 54-55°F
Normal Low: 41°F
Normal Precipitation: 0.33"
Normal Wind Speed: 6 knots


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Doc

KMSY Day 8

Relative to five of our previous seven forecasts for KMSY, day 8 is rather BORING! The Mardi Gras Black Majic witch has given us a break. While the forecast is much easier to determine, scoring against other forecasters will be much tougher.

A relaxed gradient along with mean high Pressure over the gulf will keep sfc winds light. A weak disturbance to the NW of the FC area will be blocked out by the H for the FC peroid. FC area will be upstream of UL trough axis reinforcing mean H.

Looks for winds out of the SW becoming south. Max sustained winds should not exceed 10KT.
Low temp will come at the beginning of the peroid and should bottom out around 40, maybe a bit higher. Keep an eye on the dewpoint as the day rolls along.
High temp will come past the peak of SFC heating and should top out somewhere near 70.

-Webb

KMSY Discussion for 06Z to 06Z Day 7 of WX Challenge

Drier air will be moving into the greater New Orleans area tomorrow following the departure of the system that will be bringing precip into the area today. Winds will not be bringing in vast amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico during day three as will likely be the case today. Also following the departure of the disturbance, winds will be calmer on day 3 with surface winds likely maxing out around 10-11kts. The GFS and the NAM both agree on the high for day 3 at 62, but disagree somewhat on the forecast low. GFS currently forecasts a low of 46, and NAM currently forecasts a low of 39. During the overnight hours, surface winds will be shifting to out of the north most likely meaning that the surface winds will be blowing off of Lake Pontchartrain. Given this and the fact that I don't see the kind of cold air advection I'd like to see in order for the low to get down into the 30s, I think a low somewhere in the low to possibly mid-40s is more likely. However, dewpoints will probably be low enough, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a low somewhere in the low 40s. With dry air in place during day 3, no rain is expected during the forecast period.

KMSY Day 2 Discussion:

The vigorous system which will bring severe weather to the lower Mississippi Valley today will sweep through the forecast area early in the period. Very warm and moist airmass ahead of the approaching system could lead to decent precipitation totals. Precipitable water is close to 2" the system is strong enough to tap into a good amount. Models suggest a quarter to half inch of precipitation is expected with the passage and I tend to agree. Stiff southerly winds should keep moisture and temperature levels up until the point of passage. After the early morning passage, winds will shift around to the northwest, bringing cooler, drier air into the picture. Winds shouldn't stay very strong for long as high pressure settles in and the gradient weakens. There may be some remnant low clouds Wednesday morning, so the temperature shouldn't drop too much, even after the passage. Day 2 low should come at the end of the forecast period with clear skies and dry air. Day 2 maximum will be with max heating in the afternoon. The highest winds should come with the tightest pressure gradient during passage and possibly with associated thunderstorms. Could see winds near 20kts. Min: 45-50, Max: 58-63, Precip: 0.15" - 0.50"

Cianca

Day 1 WX Discussion

An ETC is progged to intensify across the south-central US from Tues to Wed. The system should make its way across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio river Valley as it marches across the country. The low temperature for KMSY should remain above normal as a strong LL southerly flow will bring in an ample amount along with warmer temperature from the Gulf. Early morning LL cloudcover should give away to sunshine during the early afternoon. CAPE values will approach 1200 J/Kg with slight LL veering. Isolated storms will develop ahead of the cold front. Convective initialization withthis first batch of precip will be the key. The FROPA passage will be a difficult decision as well. Presently, it is forecasted to occur between Day 1 and Day 2 period. As the front approaches, a second round of steadier precip will fall on KMSY.

Doc Ng