The current standing through the Fall semester

The top 16 forecasters will compete at the end of the year local tournament. Click here to see the last year results

"*" indicates ineligible for the local MSCD tournament(April Madness) at the end of the year.

Fortunately they can take comfort in knowing that "Hail to the Redskins" will not be too hard to sing as they can claim it to be a severe weather report.

Possible enhanced precipitation due to the release CSI for 12/7 -12/8 2007

As you know, the release of CSI can cause enhanced precipitation bands. It looks like tonight Denver and the surrounding area are sitting under a region favorable for CSI to occur. Looking at the LL wind veering and the pseudo-adiabatic characteristic of the sounding from this morning, it all points to "Conditional Symmetric Instability!" In addition, we are sitting underneath the anticyclonic side of a jet as well. Although condition is favorable it does not mean we will get enhanced snowfall. These CSI-induced bands are very small scale with respect to size and time. They are rarely larger than 50 km in width and never last longer than 3-4 hours. My thinking for this weekend is that the snowfall tonight should not be too bad with the exception of few isolated areas which could see up to 6" or more snowfall, while most areas will see 1-3". Saturday night with the better upslope setup, we should see more snowfall across the Front Range area overall.

12z DNR Sounding for 07 December 2007

(courtsey of RAL)View Larger Image

12z 300mb UA analysis for 07 December 2007

(courtsey of RAL)View Larger Image

21z 300mb RUC initialization for 07 December 2007

(courtsey of RAL)View Larger Image

Wenatchee 12/6

Things will calm down significantly in Wenatchee weatherwise on Thursday. Westerly flow will turn NNW after passage of a cold front early Thursday. Airmass is somewhat colder and drier behind the front, but not drastically so. Not much chance of precipitation after the FROPA. High temperature should be around 36 while the low should be around 30. Winds will remain light from the NNW around 5 knots.

KEAT Discussion 06Z to 06Z 12/04/2007

Strong flow off of the Pacific will provide moisture over the area, although the amount of moisture reaching KEAT will not be near as great as areas to the west of the mountains. This flow will keep the diurnal temperature range fairly low and give a decent chance of precipitation especially during the early part of the forecast period. Models are suggesting that slight warm air advection will cause the temperature to slightly increase in the time leading up to the beginning of the forecast period, so the low temperature will likely be in the mid 30's. Overcast skies will keep the temperature from reaching too high tomorrow, so the high temperature will likely be in the mid 40's.

KEAT Day 2 (December 5th 6Z-6Z)

Upper level winds flatten out as the jet stream slowly moves to the south. No real curvature to indicate "weather-making" opportunities. Wednesday will be a brief respite from the seemingly continuous barage of storms buffetting the Washington/Oregon Coast. Surface winds look to have a southwestern to southerly component but without much velocity. Some high clouds will exist within turbulence in the upper level westerlies interacting with the mountains. Temperatures should remain mild with the high clouds and slight compressional warming. Lows should remain slightly above freezing with highs teasing 40.

Cianca

KEAT Long Term 12/7 6Z-12/8 6Z

Passing of PAC L Tues will leave lingering precip until Wed evening possibly into Thurs Morning. Weak High pressure building behind system will provide clearing and cooling. SFC H pused ENE onshore through FC period. Point temps for KEAT will be as follows: Fri AM low BTW 18F and 22F with Low temps arriving before daybreak. Highs Fri will peak BTW 33F and 37F. Lows Fri Night should bottom out at BTW 24 and 27F. Winds will be light out of the WNW due to mean H pressure ridge over central Pacific, becoming E/ESE for a period with possible SFC H to the North of FC area in BC/Alberta. No POPS for Fri FC period. Next good POPS coming Sat NT/SUN morn for FC area.

Prelim: H 36
L 25
Max Sustained Wind: 7KT
Prec: 0.00

-Webb

KEAT Discussion

A big broad trough is anchored over the northern Pacific Ocean. Multiple shortwaves will pass through our forecast area for the upcoming week. The first system will produce a copious amount of rainfall for the windward side of the Cascade mountians Although residual precipiation may spill over to KEAT ASOS. The timing of this first event should start Monday night and end on Tuesday morning. This is right around the start of our first forecast period. The second disturbance seems to be packing more of a punch...at least according to the GFS and will bring an increase chance of precipitation over KEAT for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It is still too early to make any actual prediction for this second wave. Temperature should be right around the normal values for the week. The only concern I have is how much spillover precipitation does KEAT get with these onshore systems?

I "EAT" therefore I am

Let me drop you some knowledge on Wenatchee, WA:

Identifier: KEAT
Elevation: 1249 ft. / 380.7 m (surveyed)
From city: 4 miles E of Wenatchee, WA
Time zone: UTC -8
Normal High: 35-38°F
Normal Low: 24-27°F
Normal Precipitation: 0.05"
Normal Wind Speed: 7 knots

KEAT is located on the leeside of the Cascade mountains!

Climo Peak Wind Observation for KEAT (2003-2006)

Maximum Wind Histogram for Wenatchee, WA from 2002-2006 (courtsey of Dr. Wagner).
View Larger Image

Google Map of KEAT

View Larger Map

KPIA Forecast Discussion

Precipitation will end tonight, & above normal temperatures will occur on Tuesday & Wednesday with a zonal flow, but temperatures will fall to below normal on Thursday & Friday. After tonight, no precipitation will occur through Friday as the upper level flow will remain dry. A 500mb low will exit the region tonight bringing an end to the precipitation. A weak cold front will push through the region overnight ushering in northerly winds & drier air. However, on Tuesday, the winds will switch to the south-southwest & temperatures will warm into the low 60's F. Above normal temperatures will persist until late Wednesday when colder temperatures move into the region as a strong, dry northwest flow sets up across the region through Friday. Temperatures will fall to below normal readings on Thursday & Friday as highs reach only into the 40's F & lows fall into the 20's F. No precipitation is expected through Friday as the upper level flow remains dry.

Miller

11/12 KPIA Discussion

Peoria, IL received quite a bit of rain today meaning that the ground is going to be wet during tomorrow's forecast period. The models forecast the overnight low tonight to be in the lower 40's, but the combination of wet ground and clear skies tonight makes me think that the low might dip down into the upper 30's. As for the high tomorrow, the GFS is currently spitting out 65, but I don't think it is taking into account the wet ground adequately. NAM and NWS estimate of 63 for tomorrow seems more reasonable, but this too could be too high. The diurnal range of temperatures should be limited tomorrow and Wednesday, but drier air moving in during the end of the week should result in a higher diurnal temperature range. Cold air advection and drier air should also result in a lower low temperature Wednesday night with the cold air advection continuing throughout the day on Thursday resulting in a lower high temperature for the day Thursday.

KPIA by OB

Precipitation chances in Peoria are dropping rapidly after today's cold front passage. With some CAA, drier air, and clearing skies the temperature tonight should drop much lower than last night, but still be above normal. Tomorrow the winds should become southwesterly ahead of the next cold front, boosting the temperatures to well above normal until the front passes on Wednesday. Along with blustery WNW winds rather strong cold air advection behind this second front should drop temperatures significantly and they should remain below normal for the remainder of the week. The high temperature on Wednesday may be the trickiest part of this week depending on the timing of the frontal passage.
Go Eagles! (and take the Flyers with you)

KPIA Forcast Discussion

A surface cold front passed through on Monday afternoon, leaving cooler, drier air in its wake. Tuesday morning winds should be light and out of the north and the cooler air should pool in low lying areas (like along the Illinois River for example). Models seem to be running a bit high, so will go upper 30's for the low. Flow should begin to switch again to the south-southwest as the day progresses, returning some moisture to the area and moderating any heating under the clear skies. Again, thinking models are overestimating the high temperature, so will go low 60's.

As the week progresses, large surface low moves across the mountains infront of an upper level trough. Surface cold front should pass early on Wednesday and then high pressure should settle in with much cooler, and much drier air.

Forecaster: Cianca

KPIA

Short term:
11/13
Passing front and showers will give way to cooler air and clearing. 24-30 hour outlook shows clear skies and light winds from the N becoming WNW. A secondary frontal passage Tuesday will shift winds but I am in disagreement in that my feeling is the winds will stay predominantly from the W, with a possible WSW component.

Mid-Term:
11/14-17
Dual L pressure centers W of Continental US. N system moved off of the PAC NW into BC and has been forced NWard by the L pressure center holding off of the Baja Peninsula. Tropical L will continue to serve as a blocking pattern keeping zonal ML flow for the plains and CENT Midwest. A baroclinic zone in relation to the L over BC will weaken as the storm is forced into the colder airmass. Look for WED-THURS for this system to reintensify over the Great Lakes region. Strengthening P gradient assoc with the system to the North will bring windy/gusty contitions to FC area WED-THURS. LOW/NO POPS. Cooler air moving into the area WED night and stable airmass/radiational cooling should lower Low temps 10+ degrees.

Webb

My Latest Thinking/WX Discussion....

So, It looks like a pretty "blah" setup with respect to the precipitation. An Alberta Clipper will make its way across the Great Lakes area within the next 36 hours. The precipitation will stay north of PIA. High clouds could develop. KPIA will stay in the NWerly flow until the end of this week.

Middle of next week, a big system could move through this region bringing severe weather. Most of the supporting dynamics will be in the low- and mid-levels.

~ Doc Ng

We can hang with the big boys

So I did quick count and our top 5 forecasters score is 12th in the nation ahead of schools with bigger enrollment. Wagner and my scores are not part of team overall score so keep up the good work!

BTW, we are now 20th in nation overall! Let's show the academic world where Metro is!

~ Doc Ng

Day 1 KPIA Discussion

There is not much to talk about for Tuesday 06Z - Wednesday 06Z period. A weak ETC will start to intensify by Monday afternoon over the upper peninsula of Michigan. The main concern for the day one forecast will be the wind towards the beginning of the period.

(revised)
The coldest temperature of the day might occur towards the end of Day 1 forecast period.

~ Doc Ng

Home of Jim Thome and our next WX site

Here is the 411 on Peoria, IL:

Identifier: KPIA
Elevation: 660 ft. / 201.2 m (surveyed)
From city: 4 miles W of Peoria, IL
Time zone: UTC -6 during Standard Time
Normal High: 48-54°F
Normal Low: 31-35°F
Normal Precipitation: 0.10"

Climo Peak Wind Observation for KPIA (2003-2006)

Maximum Wind Histogram for Portland, ME from 2004-2007 (courtsey of Dr. Wagner).
View Larger Image

Google Map of KPIA

View Larger Map

Good Luck!!!

~ Doc Ng

FC Discussion WED-FRI

Mean H pressure dominating the Continental US moves Eward ahead of approaching SW trough and assoc. PAC CF. At this time mean ZONAL flow still dominates EST 2/3CONT US. SFC L assoc. w/ Trop dist stauling off mean H pressure in the Bermuda south. This patteren leaves a W/WSW flow for daytime temp and assoc H temp accuracy being above norm. SFC winds expect to be light through next 30 hr period w/ weak press gradient. There is decent LL moisture available with no UL support at this time. L press. moves NNE and eventually ENE allowing H to move off of seaboard and approaching SW trough to accelerate. Immediate FC results suggest that an above normal high and low can be expected for next 24-36, although fluidity and rigidity of the approaching SW trough will come into play towards the end of the week(Thurs NT-FRI morn). Depending on the strength of the H as it moves into the Chesapeak Ba, and the rate of movement of the maritime L, CF could staul until Thurs NT, possibility for dissipation. Hold POPS for THURS to scattered in late am/aftn.

Webb

10/30/2007 KPWM

A ridge building in throughout the day tomorrow should result in clear skies tomorrow in Portland, ME, and anticyclonic flow to the north of the ridge will result in relatively dry air moving in fron the northwest into the Portland area. The air will have an easier time heating up since it's not the really moist air as is typical of this area if the flow is off the Atlantic, and as a result of this, I don't see any reason the high temperature tomorrow shouldn't reach the low 60's.

PWM Forecast Discussion

Calm winds, clear skies, & dry air Monday night will allow for good radiational cooling as temperatures will drop to near 32 F by Tuesday morning. High pressure will build into the region behind an exiting 500mb trough to the north during the day on Tuesday. Light westerly winds will provide some downslope warming as temperatures will reach the 50's F. Temperatures will remain above freezing on Tuesday night as clouds increase with a warm front.

Miller

KPWN - Tuesday, October 30th

High pressure moving in behind upper level trough which is now over open sea. Without much heating on Monday, and calm winds early Tuesday morning, we should see radiational cooling. Could see temperatures dip down below freezing. As the high approaches, pressure gradient should tighten during the early afternoon hours and with northwesterly flow at the surface, provide a little bit of compressional warming off of the White Mountains in New Hampshire. Daily maximum temperature should be much higher than Monday especially with decent daytime heating. Gradient will decrease toward 0Z and winds should quiet down and even shift to southerly winds which should keep Tuesday evening temperatures mild. Stable soundings and no significant moisture negate possibilities for precip.

Portland 10/30

I may not get to a computer again before the deadline for Tuesday's forecast so....
Another relatively boring weather day for the contest. High pressure moving offshore south of Portland should setup southwest flow and keep the weather fair while allowing the temperature to moderate from Monday.

Hot Water

When forecasting for coastal cities, sometimes it helps to know the temperature of the water ... especially if that's the direction the direction the wind is coming from.

Here's data from a buoy near Portland, Maine:

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44007

Maybe it will help!

Dann

Maximum Wind Speed Histogram for KPWM (2004-07)

Hey Gang:

Below is a histogram of the maximum windspeed of the day for the last 4 years over Portland, ME ASOS. Dr. Wagner made this and would like to share his climatology knowledge with y'all.

The long-term average is 15 knots, median is 14 knots. It looks like there are two main peaks. I think the first peak represents cold FROPA and daily onshore winds. The second peak is for nor'esters events.

~ Doc Ng


Maximum Wind Histogram for Portland, ME from 2004-2007 (courtsey of Dr. Wagner.
View Larger Image

WX Discussion for KPWM

Currently, a high pressure dominates the northeast bringing above temperatures to the Maine area until Monday. A cold front will pass through the KPWM sometime on Tuesday afternoon. This FROPA will usher in cloudy and rainy conditions for most of Tuesday and into parts of Wednesday. An upper-level cutoff low develops in the middle of the country by Wednesday bring unsettled weather for the Lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valley regions. As a result, a ridge will build in over the norrtheastern US for the end of this week. I expect normal temperatures over KPWM at the begining of the forecasting period and will increase steadly starting Thursday.

The GFS and Eta-WRF models are producing slightly different solutions for the upper-level low. The GFS has the low further east while, the Eta-WRF has it retrograding slightly west. This upper-low could effect how far the ridge is formed off the east coast as well as the weather in Denver for the latter part of this week.

Reverse Oregon Trail...Portland ME (KPWM)

Here are some essential information that will help all of us:


Identifier: KPWM
Elevation: 76 ft. / 23.2 m (surveyed)
From city: 2 miles W of PORTLAND, ME
Time zone: UTC -4 (UTC -5 during Standard Time)
Normal High 56 - 52°F
Normal Low 35 - 33°F
Normal Precipitation 0.15-0.16"



View Larger Map

Great Falls

Nothing exciting weatherwise for Great Falls on Tuesday. With upper level ridge building in things should be warm and dry. Brisk SE winds should help push high temperatures up 5-10 degress above normal. Things should become somewhat more interesting as the week progresses and the trough over the eastern Pacific moves in.

KGTF Discussion 10/08/2007

High pressure will be influencing the area tomorrow. Skies will be becoming more clear throughout the night, and as a result, the low should be somewhere near the low 40s just before sunrise. There will be a slight downslope influence on temperatures tomorrow, but slight warm air advection should allow temperatures tomorrow to climb higher than today. As a result of this and clear skies tomorrow, the high should be in the low to mid 70s. Don't go to low on the winds. Climatology suggests that this forecast site is historically windy. The max wind will probably be somewhere between 14-17kts tomorrow but even higher the next day.

KGTF 10/8

Large area SFC H situated over central N plains states. SSW flow becoming SW-WSW will bring a warming period for the short term. Gusts to 20+KT w/ tightened pressure gradient assoc. w/ SFC H. Weakened trough from weekend migrated NNW over N midwest leaving weak ridging behind it ahead of the next trough and deep L over PAC NW. Shallow CF becoming stationary and most likely weakening/dissipating WNW of forecast area, due to strengthening L offshore. FC temps should be higher than seasonal norms tomorrow(10/9) and becoming more seasonal midweek with oncoming baroclinic zone.

Great Falls Forecast Discussion

Large upper level trough currently digging into the Northwest United States. Strong southerly flow out ahead of approaching surface front in combination with high pressure over the central Rocky Mountains will lead to stiff southwest to south winds over the Rocky Mountain Front of northcentral Montana. Winds should continue through the forecast period and provide downslope heating and drying in the Great Falls area. Some high clouds will be in the area through the period due to the approaching trough but not enough to strongly effect the weather which will be dominated by the surface winds. Compressional heating from downslope off of the Belt Mountains will keep lows on Tuesday in the mid 40's and breezy conditions will persist into the afternoon, providing enough heating to take the temperature up into the 70's. Winds could gust as high as 30kt and a steady wind should stay between 15-20kt. No precipitation expected with strong drying at the surface and not much moisture available in the mid levels either. Some warm air advection will also keep the mid levels warm and keep the atmosphere stable.

Dann Cianca

KGFT Forecast Discussion

High pressure will dominate the region on Tuesday with above average temperatures. Low pressure & cooler temperatures will prevail late Wednesday through Saturday. High pressure will move back into the area on Sunday. Tuesday will be sunny & warm. A low pressure system will move into the area late in the day on Wednesday ushering in cooler temperatures, increasing cloudiness, & a slight chance of precipitation. 700mb temperatures will drop to 0 degrees Celsius by 0Z Thursday as a Pacific cold front passes through the district. This will translate to lows in the 30's F on Thursday morning. The better chances for precipitation will be confined to the mountains on Wednesday night. Clouds will decrease during the day Thursday, but high tempertures will reach only into the 50's to near 60 F. Clouds will increase again on Friday Night & Saturday with another slight chance of precipitation. Once again, the best chances for precipitation will be in the mountains. By Sunday, skies will clear with a ridge building into the area. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals Thursday through Sunday.

Miller

Cape Hatteras Discussion

A large upper-level ridge dominates over the eastern and central
portion of the United States. The jet stream should remain to north
over this region for the next few days at least. An amplified trough is
now observed over the Great Basin. It seems like this trough will have
a role in moving this big old ridge out of the eastern U.S. later on
this week sometime. In addition, a tropical easterly wave is bring
plenty of moisture over the Gulf Coast states. This tropical moisture
fetch should not make it over to the mid-Atlantic states until later on
this week.

The GFS model has the ridge moving off the coast
during the middle of the week and replacing it with a slight negatively
tilted trough. Temperatures should become more unseasonable towards the end of the week over KHSE. Winds will pick up as well. The best chance for precipitation accumulation seems to be Thursday evening and Friday morning. I'd give it a 33% chance of occurring. Will revise the WX discussion when it is deemed necessary or if time permits.


~Ng

This Time It Counts!

Greeting Fellow WxChallengers!

Welcome to another year of WxChallenge forecasting but to take a page from the MLB all-star game slogan: This Time It Counts! Last year, we joined during the middle of the school year and was not eligible for the season-ending tournament and overall best forecasting team. This year we are eligible for both categories. If you are interested in more information, it can be obtained at http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php.

I have not "dissected" the current pattern but I will write a brief discussion on Sunday. Remember forecast is due at 6:00 PM local time from Monday through Thursday. You can make a forecast for up to 3 days ahead. If you have any more question, please feel free to contact me at sng1@mscd.edu.

Hydrostatically Yours,

Doc Ng

P.S. Here are additional Info that could be beneficial to you.
Identifier KHSE
Normal High 80 - 76°F
Normal Low 67 - 63 °F
Normal Wind Speed 8.7 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.18"
Elevation 5.2 m


View Larger Map

2007 Tournament Win-Loss Results

	W	L	T	%
ngisok	11	1	0	0.917
rgw460	5	3	0	0.625
albie1	5	3	0	0.625
kcrand	5	7	0	0.417
ganjou	2	2	0	0.500
bf1426	1	1	0	0.500
dannwx	1	1	0	0.500
foosj1	1	1	0	0.500
webwan	1	2	1	0.375
jms9wx	1	2	1	0.375
miller	1	3	0	0.250
snake1	0	1	1	0.250
q15k13	0	1	1	0.250
wxedvo	0	2	0	0.000
weazel	0	2	0	0.000
strmsp	0	2	0	0.000

Click here to see the final bracket reseults

See you next year.

~ Doc Ng

Looks like the finals are set

Well, after the first three days of the semifinals, Dr. Ng is ahead of me by 4.7 points, and Katie is ahead of Dr. Wagner by 3.2 points. Looking at the distribution for what we all put in for our forecasts tomorrow, the most points that I could possibly make up on Dr. Ng is 3, and the most points Dr. Wagner could possibly make up on Katie is 2. Therefore, the finals will be between Katie and Dr. Ng. Best of luck to Katie in the finals! OK, good luck to Dr. Ng too! This weather challenge has been a lot of fun this year, and if you didn't get to do it this time, I really encourage you to get involved with it next semester.

Semis are set!

It looks like Wagner/Candall in the top half of the bracket and Ng/Kennedy in the bottom half.

Click here to see the the round 2 results.

Round 1 Results

Click here to see the brackets

frcstr day 1 day 2 total
rgw459 22.9 27.8 50.7
bf1426 20.6 32.8 53.4

q15k12 23.3 22.1 45.4
webwan 23.3 21.3 44.6

kcrand 10.1 27.8 37.9
wxedvo 18.6 37.8 56.4

dannwx 25.9 23.6 49.5
ganjou 18.6 25.3 43.9

foosj1 23.4 23.3 46.7
miller 14.1 30.8 44.9

ngisok 14.4 21.2 35.6
weazel 27.7 49.8 77.5

snake1 42.6 27.3 69.9
jms9wx 42.6 23.3 65.9

albie1 13.2 22.2 35.4
strmsp 17.5 39.8 57.3

MSCD Tournament Seeds and Matchups

Rossby Bracket
1) rgw459 v. 16) bf1426
8) q15k12 v. 9) webwan

Palmen Bracket
2) albie1 v. 15) strmsp
7) snake1 v. 10) jms9wx

Petterssen Bracket
3) ngisok v. 14) weazel
6) foosj1 v. 11) miller

Moore Bracket
4) dannwx v. 13) ganjou
5) kcrand v. 12) wxedvo

http://clem.mscd.edu/~sng1/WxChallenge/Tournament_2007.htm

RAP results

1) Wagner
2) Ng
3) Stauffer
4) Cianca
5) Crandall


Cat1: Wagner
Cat3: Stauffer
Cat4: Gobsin

Dr. William Gray

Forecaster Blasts Gore on Global Warming

By CAIN BURDEAU, Associated Press Writer

Sat Apr 7, 0:55 AM

Dr. William Gray, a top hurricane researcher, answers questions ...

NEW ORLEANS - A top hurricane forecaster called Al Gore "a gross alarmist" Friday for making an Oscar-winning documentary about global warming.

"He's one of these guys that preaches the end of the world type of things. I think he's doing a great disservice and he doesn't know what he's talking about," Dr. William Gray said in an interview with The Associated Press at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, where he delivered the closing speech.

A spokeswoman said Gore was on a flight from Washington, D.C., to Nashville Friday; he did not immediately respond to Gray's comments.

Gray, an emeritus professor at the atmospheric science department at Colorado State University, has long railed against the theory that heat-trapping gases generated by human activity are causing the world to warm.

Over the past 24 years, Gray, 77, has become known as America's most reliable hurricane forecaster; recently, his mentee, Philip Klotzbach, has begun doing the bulk of the forecasting work.

Gray's statements came the same day the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approved a report that concludes the world will face dire consequences to food and water supplies, along with increased flooding and other dramatic weather events, unless nations adapt to climate change.

Rather than global warming, Gray believes a recent uptick in strong hurricanes is part of a multi-decade trend of alternating busy and slow periods related to ocean circulation patterns. Contrary to mainstream thinking, Gray believes ocean temperatures are going to drop in the next five to 10 years.

Gore's documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth," has helped fuel media attention on global warming.

Kerry Emanuel, an MIT professor who had feuded with Gray over global warming, said Gray has wrongly "dug (his) heels in" even though there is ample evidence that the world is getting hotter.

Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Top 5 for ACY

1) Wagner
2) O'Brien
3) Webb
4) Guillot
5) Miller

Cat 1: Wagner
Cat 3: O'Brien
Cat4: LaRoche

Top 16

Rank Overall Score Forecaster
1. -2.620 rgw459
2. -1.757 albie1
3. -1.393 ngisok
4. -0.747 dannwx
5. -0.270 kcrand
6. 0.870 jms9wx
7. 0.883 foosj1
8. 1.297 snake1
9. 1.643 q15k12
10. 2.210 webwan
11. 2.710 miller
12. 2.753 ganjou
13. 4.160 wxedvo
14. 5.523 abbott
15. 6.930 weazel
16. 7.283 strmsp

My thoughts on KACY for what it's worth

It looks like KACY will be dry and slightly unseasonable temperature for our first day and then all crap will hit the fan. A Clipper system will re-intensify over the Mid-Atlantic states bringing a nice soaking rain to the Jersey coast.

Zonal flow aloft will dominate until the middle of the week when the clipper system arrives over PA/NJ. The UL low will intensity, creating a stronger area of divergence over the Mid-Atlantic states. Surface winds will be from the south to southwest as a high pressure will initially dominate off the Atlantic shoreline. After the high pressure moves out, again Atlantic City being situated in the warm sector of the ETC will still experience southerly/southwesterly flow. This will keep the temperatures above normal for the rest of the week.

~ Doc Ng

The overall top 16 Forecasters....so far!

Rank  Overall Score   Forecaster
    1.       -3.750         Wagner
    2.       -3.525         Ng
    3.       -2.215         Kennedy
    4.       -0.765         Cianca
    5.       -0.750         Foos
    6.       -0.500         Crandall
    7.       -0.300         Splitt
    8.        0.680         Guillot
    9.        1.645         O'Brien
   10.       1.680         Stout
   11.       2.055         Miller
   12.       2.340         Webb
   13.       2.355         Stauffer
   14.       2.735         Abbott
   15.       3.200         Howard
   16.       5.795         LaRoche

Best of the rest: Kevin C., Marta N., Mitch W., Paul F., Cutler, G. Kyle K., Dan K., Joradn E., Tony L., and Jon V.

Top 5 for Tucson

1) Kennedy
2) Cianca
3) Splitt
4) Wagner
5) Crandall

Top group 3 forecaster: Kennedy

Top group 4 forecaster: Stout

Let's go gambling from March 12 - 23, 2007.

Next site will be Atlantic City, NJ.

Also, thanks to daylight saving time, your forecast is due at 6:00 PM LDT instead of 5:00 LST. Thanks, President Bush!

Information:

Identifier KACY
Normal High 51-54°F
Normal Low 31 - 34°F
Normal Wind Speed 9 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.13-0.14"
Latitude 39.4494°N
Longitude -74.5672°W
Elevation 20 m

The ACY ASOS station and its location in relation to Atlantic City

~ Doc Ng

MSCD WX Challenge Tourney

Hey Gang:

Since we are not eligible for the final tournament this year, I figure we have our own in-house one. The top 16 forecasters from the METRO will vie for the best METRO forecaster title. The last forecast period (KTOP), which is slated for the WX challenge tournament, will be our tournament time as well. You can call it April Metro Madness. We are able to put in forecasts for this period so I will run our tournament on the side. The rules will be the same as the WX Challenge Tournament with the exception that 1st and 2nd rounds will consist of 2 forecasting days per round. The semifinals and final will consist of 4 forecasting days. For example, Round 1: Day 1-2, Round 2: Day 3-4, Semifinals: Day 5-8, and Final: Day 9-12.

April MSCD WX Madness Tournament

MSCD WX Challenge Tournament Rules
The rules for the April Metro Madness tournament are as follows:

* You may participate in the forecasting even if you are not in the tournament, or you have been eliminated. Your forecasts will still be scored and you will be able to see your results on the standard results pages.

* The entire tournament will take 3 weeks instead of 2 weeks. Thus, there will be 12 days of forecasting instead of 8.

* Each "round" consists of forecasting (as normal) for two consecutive days with the exception of the semifinal and final rounds which are 4 days in each round.

* Forecasts will be made on Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. There will be no forecasts on Wednesday, as it will be used to determine the winners before the next round in the 1st two rounds and a rest day thereafter.

* The forecaster with the lower combined (2-day or 4-day) score advances to the next round.

* If the forecaster with the lower score has entered fewer "human forecasts" (i.e. took guidance, missed a forecast, or took persistence) than their opponent, then they do not advance to the next round.

* In case of a tie, please see Tie Breaker Rules.

* Each round, scores are reset to 0 for all forecasters. However, on the standard results pages, the scores will continue to accrue as normal.

Tie Breaker Rules
In the case of a tie, the following rules will be applied in the following
order:

* The forecaster with the lower Day 2 or Day 4 score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined precipitation score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined wind speed score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined total score for the tournament advances.

* The forecaster with the lower seed advances.

Selection Criteria
The seeding will be based on your cumulative score on the WXChallenge results page.

I hope this will make it interesting for the rest of the semester.

Buoyantly Yours,

Doc Ng

Don't You Forget About the TROWAL!!

SPC has issued a high risk area for severe weather this afternoon over the SE US. Yes, most of you are as giddy as a kid on Christmas eve but give winter weather some love.

Look at the mosaic radar image for the Upper Mississippi River Valley, there is nice heavy snow band east of Sioux Falls, SD. This is associated with the trowal (trough of warm air aloft) feature. This is a classic case!

~ Doc Ng



Day 1 Convective Outlook valid for 1630Z on 01 March 2007 (courtesy of SPC)



NWS Radar Mosaic of the Upper Midwest Region from 1548 - 1658 UTC on 01 March 2007(courtesy of NWS)

The Death of the El Nino.

Dr. Wagner pointed out to me that the present El Nino pattern is weakening quickly. What does that hold for our big March snowstorm in Denver? Who knows?! Time will tell...


NOAA Operational SST Anomaly for 24 October 2006


NOAA Operational SST Anomaly for 23 February 2007

~ Doc Ng

Greeting from Boring Tucson AZ!

It looks like zonal flow will dominate over SW US for the next few days. A disturbance is progged to move across the northern Great Basin but it will not affect TUS CWA
with respect to surface sensible weather. Although the southern portion
of the system could stir up the pressure gradient and causing gusty
condition forTUS for Tuesday.

Temperature will be seasonably warm. The lack of moisture (dew point temps hovering in the high teens and low 20s) and QG up-forcing will make predicting the low temperatures and winds the most challenging aspects for the next few days. According to the GFS, a weak SW trough will race across the TUS CWA on Thursday Night but I do not foresee any precipitation associated with this system.

~ Doc Ng

Additional Info:
Identifier KTUS
Normal High 70-72°F
Normal Low 43 - 44 °F
Normal Wind Speed 6 knots
Normal Precipitation 0.07-0.08"
Elevation 779 m

Here is a topo map of AZ.


Topographic Map of Arizona (courtsey of NGDC)

The Gospel according to Wagner:

Dr. Wagner wrote:

"As a whole, Metro represented well for INL.

San Antonio
Top 10% of forecasts: 0
Top 20%: 3 (jason, wagner, ng)
Top 30%: 6 (albert, katie, dann)
Top 50%: 23
Bottom 50%: 3

International Falls
Top 10% of forecasts: 4 (ng, wagner, albert, ryan abbott)
Top 20%: 8 (greg, dann, ganjou, jms)
Top 30%: 14 (katie, webwan, q15k12, strmsp, miller, hayden)
Top 50%: 23 Bottom 50%: 3
Category 1: Ng 4th, Wagner 6th out of 78
Undergraduates (Cat. 3 & 4): Albert 33rd, Abbott 43rd, Greg 87th out of >1100"

Top 5 Metro Forecasters for KINL

Here are the results:

1) Ng
2) Wagner
3) Kennedy
4) Abbott
5) Guillot

Best Group 3 forecaster: Kennedy

Best Group 4 forecaster: Stout

As a group, we did much better than SAT. Keep up the good work.


~ Doc Ng

KINL Final Day

MOS currently forecast the low tonight for KINL between 2-3, but with the WAA that will be in place tonight, I am leaning higher i.e. 4-6. GFS and NAM project 24 and 32 for the high tomorrow respectively, but I'm also leaning toward the higher temp forecasgt due to the WAA that will be in place tomorrow. The GFS forecast high of 24 seems too low in my eyes at this point. 32 may be a little high, but it seems more reasonable to me than 24. The consensus on the max winds seems to be between 13 and 16 knots, but anyone's guess in this range looks as good as any right now. I'm going to take another look at the winds later. There is also a snow storm moving in to KINL tomorrow night, and the GFS currently shows some precip accumulation of about .05 in the area by the end of the forecast period. I don't think it will be that high, but it wouldn't surprise me if they get .01-.02 inches by the end of the forecast period. Good luck to everyone in the final forecast for KINL!

Albert

Possible MLC System this WKND

Doc was talking about a system projected for this weekend. Early runs showed the mid level trough deepening/closing off over Desert SW. This L showed a progressive track through AZ-NM-OK panhandle. I'm looking at model runs and they are showing the L center developing over W WY and tracking SE. By SAT this L is projected to end up in the same spot (OK panhandle) but with a different origin. Have many of you seen this scenario much?

Models Diverging

It looks like the GFS and NAM have differnt solutions for the track of the Albert Clipper. GFS has it traveling a more southerly track while the NAM track is farther north.

Addenium:

It looks like the GFS will be the right solution.


~ Doc Ng

Crying Fowl

Okay, I agree with the high temp, the max wind, and of course the precip for INL on day one ... but I think the low is bogus. It was at least -19ºF yesterday there. Maybe the COOP site is on a hillside? That would have been nice to know. International Falls, while topographically challenged, does sit in a small depression (thus the lake). Strange that it would have the highest low in the region that given morning ...

Sorry, just bitter.

Dann.

Looks like the ASOS is fixed

Here is the latest METAR:

KINL 131755Z AUTO 36007KT 10SM -SN CLR M17/M25 A3055 RMK AO2 SNB08E32B51 SLPNO P0000 60000 T11721250 58005

There goes my score...

Looks like my forecast for 2/13 is going to be climo. Damn it! I completely forgot about it until around 5:40.

Lets see:
High: 22
Low: -1
Precip:0.02

We'll see how I do with this I guess.

Temp Sensor at KINL

From WxChallenge.com:

Critical Notice
The WxChallenge is aware of the ASOS problems at KINL. The NWS in Duluth, MN has told us that it is just the temperature sensor that is broken and will be fixed/replaced tomorrow. The other variables (wind and precipitation) are working normally. The NWS is using a nearby COOP station (within 5 miles of KINL) to augment the temperature data in the climate reports. Until KINL's temperature readings are online for an entire 6 UTC to 6 UTC period, the official scoring will use the climate report data (nearby COOP station) for the high and low temperature (wind and precipitation will continue as normal).

General Wind Patterns/KINL

PAST 72HRS DATA SETS-MAX SUST WINDS 14MPH(THRICE) AVG SUST WIND 7.04MPH
FAST-RUNNING FROPA SOMETIME BTW 16-18Z 2/11 WITH NO SIG IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION/SPD. GENERAL FLOW W/NW. SAME FROPA SHOWED NO SIG DROP IN TEMP AS WELL AS AIRMASS TEMP VARIATION MINIMAL BTW MASSES.
AVG TEMP PRE 7 DS-HIGH 1-4
LOW 18-22
DIURNAL VAR 19-26 AVG 21
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST NEXT 48-60 HRS

Wind Chill

Do we know whether the instruments being used are affected by wind chill? Or is it just my best guess?

My two cents...

It looks like the ASOS at KINL is in need of maintenance. Beware of the scores for this period, they may not be correct initially.

A persistent upper-level trough remains anchor over the Great Lakes region. Northern Minnesota will remain in a NWerly flow for the next few days. The upper-level dynamics appear to be moving out of the region. With the NWerly flow the dominant pattern for the good part of this week, most of the sensible weather will track south of KMSP. A bitterly cold, Arctic air mass from central Canada is ready plunge south once again. This 1042 hPa surface high is progged to usher over the Dakotas by Wednesday night. The anticyclone as of 18Z Feb 2007 is located over northern Alberta province. Surfacetemperature this morning over The Pas (northwest of KINL in Canada) was -26.9 C (-16.42 F). According to the US Air force data there is a 10-20 cm of snow cover over KINL, so be careful of the radiational effect associated with snow (i.e. Albedo).


US Air Force Snow Depth Anaylsis


If the GFS verifies, the best chance of any precip will occur Thursday night into Friday morning as an Alberta Clipper moves over the CWA.


~ Doc Ng

Next Forecast Site: KINL

Two Words:

VERY COLD!

~ Doc Ng

Unoffical Results for KSAT

Top 5 forecasters:

1. Jason Foos
2. Dr. Wagner
3. Dr. Ng
4. Albert Kennedy
5. Katie Crandall

Best Freshmen/Sophomores: Jermey Stout

Best Juniors/Seniors: Jason Foos

Keep up the good work!

~ Doc Ng

Hard to see much of anything this morning as a very dense layer of fog overtook most of the Metro area. A fog bank only a few hundred feet deep lowered visibility to less than a quarter of a mile in many places along my route to campus. Even lower visibilites were reported elsewhere. Light snow fell on me in a few places, but C-DOT cameras from KMGH Channel 7 showed areas of heavy snow falling near Sante Fe and C-470. This snow was falling from the fog as the skies above the fog layer were clear. Most radar views showed no precip over the area as the beam was scanning over the fog and thus could not see the snow falling in that cloud layer. Pretty interesting stuff. None the less, here are a few shots from my venture in this morning...


Headlights from oncoming cars visible through the fog.


Traffic on Kipling at Mississippi in the fog.


Traffic on northbound Kipling just south of Alameda slowed by the thick fog.


Bank of the West buried in fog at Alameda and Wadsworth.


Thick fog over Alameda near Belmar.


Looking into a valley on Alameda near Sheridan.

Welcome to February all! You know what that means!! Severe weather season is one month closer and my storm chasing season is less than 60 days away! For you normal people, it means one month less of winter. Something I'm sure most of us could use a break from!

And you're going to get it... at least for the next few days! Temps will warm nicely into the 50s and maybe lower 60s with a downsloping wind helping with warming closer to the foothills (me in Lakewood oughta do niiiice). The next system looks to be moving into the area at the start of the weekend (is there a schedule for this that I'm missing) bringing with it a chance of snow with colder temps.

The last storm put us over our seasonal average for snowfall this season, and with two months left, we'll should do quite well in terms of the top snowfall seasons in Denver. The record is still a ways off at 118.7 inches (1908-1909), but it certainly is possible with the two snowiest months upcoming. As for current record breaking numbers, tomorrow will tie the 3rd longest amount of consecutive days with snow on the ground. If the warm weather doesn't melt all the snow before Wednesday, we'll take over the 3rd longest streak. If at least an inch of snow remains through the weekend, we could continue to add to that streak as there is a chance for more snow to fall. If we hit 61 days, we'll be in 2nd, but at that point, we'll be close enough to the 1983-1984 record of 63 days. As of yesterday, the official Stapleton measuring site had 9 inches. Is it enough of a buffer to stand up to the next few days? We shall see!

My thoughts for this week

Due to my busy schedule for this week I will be only doing this wx discussion. Hopefully more people will get involved in this discussion forum, especially the MTR 3410 class.

The GFS has a negative tilted trough placed over western US for the rest of the KSAT forecast period. The STJ seems to be less of a player for the up coming week over southern TX until maybe last forecast day. GFS hints at a fetch of higher theta-e being drawn up from the Gulf by Thursday. This could help to destabilize the atmosphere. My personal feeling is that showers and t'storms won't like to occur until maybe the last couple of forecast periods. If they do develop, storms will not be organized and will be the isolated type.

Day 3 Thoughts

It seems like the GFS and NAM are in agreement with the UL low ejecting off out of SOCAL region and into the South Plains area during this forecast period. This low will become progressive. Also UL dynamics over KSAT between 12UTC 2/1 - 00UTC 2/2 are the strongest but still not ideal. Beware of the QPF!

Tomorrow high can be a touch and go situation. If the clouds break up and with westerly winds (hint hint WAA)..I can see the high temp reaching close to 70F but that is a big "IF".

~Ng

Whoops to Day 1; And Maybe a Bit Chilly

Whoops... looks like we all slipped a bit on Day 1. Glad to see I wasn't alone. Yeah, I looked at the highs earlier and shook my head. I still went with some rain for tomorrow as the imager is showing that moisture moving into the area. I certainly don't think it'll be a soaker, but enough to generate some precip over forecasting time. As for the winds, still getting a grasp on those. Ha! Waiting for some freak downburst to sustain winds at 50kts for long enough to blow my forecast out of whatever water I called for! LOL Fun stuff, though!

As for us (going back to something I know a bit better), latest indications are proving to be a bit cooler than I would've thought this time yesterday. My forecast for yesterday had us above 0 through the period into early next week. Now I find myself dropping lows into the minus area with highs still in the teens. I'm not ready to sink my teeth into single digit highs just yet due to winds and cloud cover, but I will certainly agree that colder temps are in store than I previously had thought.

Snow still looks iffy, but a few inches look possible over the next few days starting with tomorrow. A second round coming after the front passes late Thursday into Friday. Again, nothing too significant; just enough to keep our chance at seeing the consecutive snowfall on the ground record going. We should hit the top 3 at least, but I think the 60s are hard to come by with the advertisement of the warmer weather returning midweek.

Verification of Winds

Note that the winds seem to be verified as the strongest 2-minute sustained winds for the day. This seems to be slightly higher sometimes (a knot or two?) than the hignest value from the hourly METARS.
The monthly climatology table (Preliminary Data F6 form) gives a brief overview of max winds over the past month. You can find this table at the local NWS forecast office web page. Go to climatology, local , Preliminary Climo Data, Latest, GO. Or look at archived for previous month's data.

Day 2 Thoughts

My gut feeling is that the precip for day 2 might be over-hyped. A strong STJ is still persistent over thhe South Plains/SE US. A shortwave which is very subtle on the NAM and GFS runs is schedule to move over south Texas on Thursday morning.
This SW feature is evident on the latest WV imagery. It is located over Northern Mexican Baja region. I think precip will be a better bet on Day 3 forecast. The jet dynamics is not conducive for strong UVM over KSAT for this period. Although, a tongue of higher theta-e air is just off the coast of TX and with 850 hPa S/SE winds prog for the period, instability can increase over the CWA. A chance of precip can not be ruled out.

In addition, since the high temp for day 1 was higher than expected, the low for tonight could be higher than MOS. Although, drier air will be entrained into the area by tonight bring the dew point values below 40F.

Day One Bust

Well...so much for my max/min temps. At 1600 UTC, the temp was 58F already. I was right about the precip amount at least...so far. The low pressure took a farther east trajectory than I had anticipated. I thought the system would move more of a NE path.

~Ng

06z 1/30 - 06z 1/31 initial thoughts

Overall pattern still remains the same as last week. Rex block still persists over the west coast. Strong STJ over the South Plains and SE US.

The low temperature I think will be lower than than the ETAMOS value. Closer to the GFS with the cold front passing through during the dawn hours. Although there is significant cloud cover over KSAT, the wind will not be still.


With the cloud cover overhead, I think using the 850 temp rule for a high temperature tomorrow would not be too bad. The surface wind should pick up over this period as the front approaches and passes. I think MOS values are a litte too high with the FROPA anticpated tomorrow morning. Although it is not a strong front, it should keep the temp lower than expected MOS values.

Precip chances will be low. I think Houston will get hammered but not KSAT. Nonetheless, a trace amount is possible. I do not see any possible isentropic upslope flow over KSAT.


~Ng

Looks a bit chilly! Seems we could have a repeat of the cold snap we experienced last week. Perhaps even colder. GFS is hinting at highs in the single digits, but it looks as if we'll be on the backside of this cold air as even colder air will fill in through the midwest. We should start to moderate as the flow deamplifies towards the end of the weekend, but areas out east will remain very cold.

First Day

Any thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern?