Some Quillayute-y Information

The town of Quillayute is actually really small. The ASOS is at the airport which basically serves the towns of Forks (to the east) and La Push (to the west, on the Coast). The elevation is 192ft and is in hilly, but not mountainous terrain, close to the coast.

Latitude: 47.93750; Longitude: -124.55500

Here is a link to the sea surface temperature at La Push:
(EDIT: The last link I posted was for historical data. This site has buoy data under "current weather" Sorry for the confusion)
http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/la-push-washington.html
That might be useful in your forecast, especially when you suspect the wind to be off the water.

Click the image below to get a general overview of the area:

JAX Week 2 Outlook

Onshore flow will dominate as a strong, large anticyclone settles over the northeast/mid-atlantic states. A station boundary remains over central FL from the satellite and surface analyses. Light rain should be a concern for the early of the week. Wednesday into Thursday, a progressive, cutoff low will skim to the north of the forecast area bring it a better chance of heavier rain. Temperatures should remain in the low to mid 80s during the day and upper 60s during the night. With an onshore flow, wind speed could be slightly higher than the forecasted value.


Doc

First Day Forecast and etc (not extratropical cyclone)

An upper level disturbance will create a challenge for the first weather forecast of the semester. Mid-level clouds should persist into Tuesday as the mid-level is fairly unstable. Scattered T-storms will erupt across the greater part of central FL. An isolated T-storm could initiate over northern FL and create a precipitation forecast nightmare. High temperature should reach into the mid-80s for Monday and Tuesday while the low temperature will be slightly above average for this time of the year. Winds should be weak through the first forecast period. Any measurable precipitation will be scattered therefore, I am leaning towards a lower end value.

Later on in the week as the surface trough remains over central FL, the best chance of significant rain will be south of Orlando and beyond. I don't foresee a dramatic shift in the temperature and pattern for the next 48 hrs.


JAX CLIMO:

Identifier KJAX
Normal High 80-83°F
Normal Low 62-65 °F
Elevation 10 m
Normal Precipitation 0.14-0.21"



Good luck!

Doc Ng

Cinderella story and drama are the story lines for the Semis

Round 2 results:

Janke (15.0) v. Splitt (17.5)

O'Brien (16.0) v. Kennedy (17)

Cianca (7.5) v. Anderson (43.1)

Sanford (8.5) v. Wagner (11.0)

Semi matchups are:

Janke (16) v. O'Brien (5)

Cianca (3) v. Sanford (7)

Remember this whole week for the semifinals, you must forecast for Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

Good luck to the survivors!

~ Doc Ng

Round 2

Round 2 results can be viewed at http://clem.mscd.edu/~sng1/WxChallenge/Tournament_2008_results.htm

Good Luck to the survivors!


~Doc Ng

Final MSCD Standing and Tournament Seedings

The top 16 forecasters will be entered for the 2008 MSCD April Madness tournament.

Here is the final standing.

1) ngisok (-3.189)
2) wagner (-2.704)
3) cianca (-1.539)
4) albie1 (-1.286)
5) obrien ( 0.230)
6) ka8222 ( 0.480)*
7) rissa3 ( 0.734)
8) jms9wx ( 1.367)
9) bcote1 ( 1.645)
10) bludot ( 1.996)*
11) 1225bc ( 2.547)
12) s21rty ( 3.446)
13) laine3 ( 3.468)
14) crysis ( 4.204)
15) webwan ( 4.421)
16) janke1 ( 4.928)
17) baylor ( 5.222)
18) kylef5 ( 5.766)
19) bfly16 ( 6.866)
20) tripp3 ( 7.680)
21) jill31 (10.244)*

* denotes spring forecast contest entry and does not receive a drop for its final score.

The 1st and 2nd rounds will consist of 2 forecasting days per round . The semifinals and final will consist of 4 forecasting days.

Round 1: Day 1-2 (April 7-8), Round 2: Day 3-4 (April 10-11), Semifinals: Day 5-8, and Final: Day 9-12.

REMEMBER: If you advance pass the 1st round, there is no forecast on Wednesday but instead you will need to make forecast for Friday.

Tournament Matchups

Rossby Bracket
1) Ng vs. 16) Janke
8) Splitt vs. 9) Cote

Palmen Bracket
2) Wagner vs. 15) Webb
7) Sanford vs. 10) Young

Petterssen Bracket
3) Cianca vs. 14) LaRoche
6) Anderson vs. 11) Carr

Moore Bracket
4) Kennedy vs. 13) Emerson
5) O'Brien vs. 12) Lingaard

2008 MSCD April Madness Bracket

View Larger Image


Best of Luck!


Doc Ng

KMSP Day 8 Discussion

Models are currently in pretty good agreement about the low temperature for this forecast period. The GFS and NAM currently forecast 34 and 33 respectively for the low. The models disagree however on the high. GFS and NAM currently forecast 58 and 53 for the high respectively. I tend to think that 58 is more reasonable with some warm air advection coming in from the west. Maximum wind is forecast by the models to be somewhere between 12 to 15 knots, and there should also be no precipitation to worry about during this forecast period.

Kennedy

KMSP Day 7 Forecast Discussion

This forecast discussion is for the period of 6Z to 6Z spanning the 3rd and 4th of April and for the location of Minneapolis/Saint Paul International Airport, in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Pattern shifts from zonal to a hint of trough over the forecast period as the area experiences some height falls. At the surface, the dominate anticyclone to the east will slowly move away with the upper level action. A surface cyclone, which should develop over the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas will eventually swing up to the northeast, but should keep its weather far to the south of Minnesota. The wind field should continue to be from the south with an eventual swing to the west. Some high level clouds could be in the area from the developing storms to the south, but the day looks seasonal. Without much moisture to work with, highs could easily reach the low 50's. Lows shouldn't dip much below freezing either as a few clouds and the southerly wind component won't allow them to drop much further. Pressure gradient never really amps up, so expect winds to be rather light unless substantial differential heating over areas of snowpack, frozen lakes, or cloud shadows causes some good mixing.

Cianca.

Current MSCD Standing for the April Madness Tourney

The top 16 forecasters will be eligible for the local 2008 April Madness tournament.

Here is the current standing not including KMSP score.

1) ngisok (-3.654)
2) wagner (-2.834)
3) cianca (-2.069)
4) albie1 (-1.806)
5) obrien (-0.166)
6) jms9wx ( 0.517)
7) rissa3 ( 0.563)
8) ka8222 ( 0.767)*
9) bludot ( 1.422)*
10) bcote1 ( 1.493)
11) 1225bc ( 2.794)
12) s21rty ( 3.757)
13) crysis ( 4.137)
14) laine3 ( 4.320)
15) webwan ( 4.354)
16) baylor ( 4.593)
17) janke1 ( 4.816)
18) kylef5 ( 4.956)
19) jill31 ( 6.270)*
20) bfly31 ( 6.270)
21) tripp3 ( 7.204)
22) suaave (43.017)*
23) manutd (49.985)*

* denotes spring forecast contest entry and does not receive a drop for its final score.

Here are the rules:

The rules will be the same as the WX Challenge Tournament with the exception that 1st and 2nd rounds will consist of 2 forecasting days per round. The semifinals and final will consist of 4 forecasting days. For example, Round 1: Day 1-2, Round 2: Day 3-4, Semifinals: Day 5-8, and Final: Day 9-12.

MSCD WX Challenge Tournament Rules
The rules for the April Metro Madness tournament are as follows:

* You may participate in the forecasting even if you are not in the tournament, or you have been eliminated. Your forecasts will still be scored and you will be able to see your results on the standard results pages.

* The entire tournament will take 3 weeks instead of 2 weeks. Thus, there will be 12 days of forecasting instead of 8.

* Each "round" consists of forecasting (as normal) for two consecutive days with the exception of the semifinal and final rounds which are 4 days in each round.

* Forecasts will be made on Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. There will be no forecasts on Wednesday, as it will be used to determine the winners before the next round in the 1st two rounds and a rest day thereafter.

* The forecaster with the lower combined (2-day or 4-day) score advances to the next round.

* If the forecaster with the lower score has entered fewer "human forecasts" (i.e. took guidance, missed a forecast, or took persistence) than their opponent, then they do not advance to the next round.

* In case of a tie, please see Tie Breaker Rules.

* Each round, scores are reset to 0 for all forecasters. However, on the standard results pages, the scores will continue to accrue as normal.

Tie Breaker Rules
In the case of a tie, the following rules will be applied in the following
order:

* The forecaster with the lower Day 2 or Day 4 score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined precipitation score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined wind speed score advances.

* The forecaster with the lower combined total score for the tournament advances.

* The forecaster with the lower seed advances.

Selection Criteria
The seeding will be based on your cumulative score on the WXChallenge results page with the exception of the spring only particpants.

KMEM Day 8

Trough axis moves off to the coast today leaving WNW mid and upper level flow becoming more zonal. Models showing a weak SFL L approaching from the west creating weak southerly flow at the SFC . FC period is stable and seasonable. Mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid 70's. Winds strengthen as morning passes. Low temp at the beginning of the period.

-Webb

KMEM Day 7 Discussion

I have to give myself a big oops! I woke up this morning and realized that I was supposed to do a discussion for day 7 instead of day 6. Oops! Anyway, on with the discussion.

With cold air advection taking place tonight, both the GFS and NAM models currently forecast lows in the upper 30s. Skies will be clear following the passage of the low, and as a result, both the NAM and GFS currently forecast highs in the mid 60s during the afternoon. Since the low will be past by the time the forecast period for day 7 starts, winds will be much calmer than for day 6. Both GFS and NAM suggest that the maximum wind for the period will be 7-8 kts. The precipitation forecast has been tricky the past couple of days for the Memphis area, but we won't have to worry about that for day 7. Just put in 0 for your precip value. All in all, this will be a much less interesting forecast day than either day 5 or 6.

Kennedy

KMEM Day 6 Discussion

With WAA continuing during the beginning of the forecast period, the high for the period will be at the beginning of the period. Also expect the strongest winds during the very beginning of the period with values possibly topping 20 knots. Precipitation forecast will be tricky. Right now, the majority of the precipitation seems to be occurring north of the Memphis area, and the precipitation won't commence over Memphis until the low moves further east. Most of the models are currently forecasting over an inch of precipitation during the forecast period, and plenty of moisture will be drawn from the Gulf ahead of the low, but I still feel like precip forecasts above 1.2" will end up being too high. With cold air advection taking place toward the end of the period, the low will occur at the end of the period, and models currently suggest that the low will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Kennedy

KMEM Day 6 Forecast Discussion

This forecast discussion is for the period of 6Z to 6Z spanning the 19th and 20th of March and for the location of Memphis International Airport, in Memphis, Tennessee.

Currently (18th/15Z), a deep upper level trough is in place over the southcentral portion of the United States. High clouds already present in the Memphis area. This will be a precursor to the advancing shield of rain which should be ongoing or at least just beginning at the start of the forecast period. Models are in general agreement as to the slow pace of this this system as it propagates to the east. Ample moisture is being advected from the Gulf of Mexico and massive convergence along an almost-stationary boundary that will slowly work its way into the area should produce copious amounts of precipitation. Top that off with instability-driven thunderstorms and we could be looking at high rain amounts in the 2-3" range in the early morning hours. Precipitation should finally taper off toward the end of the forecast period and will be replaced by clearing skies and much cooler, drier air.

The GFS and WRF are in line with temperatures (except in the early morning hours) while the NGM is some place else entirely. As the GFS has been handling temperatures fairly well, the maximum temperature should occur at the very beginning of the forecast period and should be in the low 60's, unless the heavy rain begins before the forecast period starts ... which could trend to a slightly lower max (upper 50's). Temperatures should stay in the mid to lower 50's throughout the day without any heating. The warm temperature advection should be over by this time and the cloudcover and precipitation will reign for temperatures. The period minimum will come at the end of the period and depending on the clearing (radiational cooling) could get down into the lower 40's.

Pressure gradients will be strong at the beginning of the period and will weaken before tightening slightly in the afternoon. Could see sustained two-minute average winds above 20kts.


Cianca

Day 5 WX Discussion

A strong system is ejecting from the Rokcies today and will move through the Midwest in the next 48 hours. Strong upper-level dynamics will fuel this storm. Strong 850 mb southerly winds will be observed until Wednesday afternoon. The surface low is forecasted to track across Ohio River Valley. Best precip chance will be from tomorrow morning until Wednesday night with the max amount Wednesday morning. Futhermore, I would suggest keeping the low temperature for Day 5 slightly warmer with the strong WAA pattern occuring overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Doc Ng

KMEM Day 4 Forecast Discussion

This forecast discussion is for the period of 6Z to 6Z spanning the 14th and 15th of March and for the location of Memphis International Airport, in Memphis, Tennessee.

Finally, some actual "weather" to talk about. Zonal upper level pattern with a weak jet streak pointing directly at the forecast area will leave it in the left exit of the jet. Area will be favorable for upward vertical motion. Associated surface low seems to reflect this. Southerly winds ahead of surface trough will continue to advect moisture into the area and bringing dewpoints up into the 50's. With ascent and the forcing associated with the surface feature, the area will be favorable for precipitation, some convective. WRF is showing 1500J/kg of CAPE without any substantial cap at 00Z. Precipitable water levels are greater than 2" and forecast hodographs could support supercells possibly elevated if the area becomes more warm-frontal. Rain and hail should be the main threat, though some strong winds with storms could be possible. Models aren't really intensifying the low too much and show
another forming in Texas, so the front may linger back to the west and become stationary.

Warm airmass should be mostly intact, just more moist. Cloudcover will inhibit temperature, so the maximum will likely be in the upper 60's unless the clouds break enough to let the sun in for any period of time. In that case, which is less likely, the maximum could sneak into the lower 70's. The minimum will also be on the mild side. Cloudcover and the southerly flow should keep the temperature up (as well as the amount of moisture in the air inhibiting radiative cooling). If the clouds break at all, the temperature should dip into the mid 50's, if not, we'll see close to 60º.
Since the system won't get too strong, the pressure gradient won't be very large. The highest wind may come from thunderstorms, otherwise we won't see much more than 12-15kts.
As far as precipitation, we will undoubtedly see some. Thunderstorm amounts could touch 1" in places, though this will be hit or miss. Models, however, aren't going for more than half an inch total.

Cianca.

KMEM Day 3

It will be a great day for Bass fishing in Southwestern Tennessee on Wednesday. The Bass should be starting to stage for their pre-spawn pattern as the water temps rise into the mid 60's... Wait, this isn't a fishing report!

Southwesterly flow throughout the period will drive temps up into the low-mid 70's as well as keep the morning low quite mild. High SFC pressure continues to dominate the SE US with no weathermakers to speak of. Winds start out light and pick up a bit as the SFC heats into the afternoon.

Boring... can we get back to talking about Bass fishing?

-Webb

KMEM Day 2 Discussion

With high pressure expected to dominate throughout the forecast period, the models are in excellent agreement with regard to high and low temperature, wind, and precipitation. The precip forecast will be easy, even for novice forecasters. All you have to do is put a 0 in the space for precip when entering your forecast. The GFS and NAM both agree with a high in the low 70s and a low in the mid-40s. Both models also agree on the maximum wind for the period to occur during the afternoon with a peak of about 12 knots. With high pressure to the south and warmer air to the west of Memphis, some WAA will be present throughout the period allowing the high to reach the lower, to possibly mid-70s. The GFS and NAM currently forecast highs of 71 and 70 respectively, but I wouldn't be surprised if these were a little low. Drier air also has the ability to heat up better than moist air. The WAA present will also be the reason that the overnight low for day 3 will likely be much higher than the low for day 2.

Kennedy

KBUF Day 8 Discussion

First, overcast skies are forecast by both the GFS and NAM for the entire forecast period. Overcast skies during the beginning of the forecast period will provide some hindrance to cooling overnight, and both the GFS and NAM forecast lows in the mid-20s. Due to limited heating as a result of overcast skies, warm air advection is going to be the main factor in deciding on a forecast high. GFS currently shows some nice warm air advection beginning during the morning hours and lasting throughout the rest of the forecast period ahead of an approaching low. As a result of this, GFS currently forecasts a high near 37, and NAM currently forecasts a high near 35. At this point, I like the higher number for an initial guess as a forecast high to take the warm air advection into proper account. The overnight low for the forecast period should be a very safe bet for the low during the forecast period since warm air advection will delay colder temperatures until after the end of the forecast period. Winds will pick up during the afternoon and toward the end of the forecast period, and surface winds will be off of Lake Ontario at the end of the forecast period. Snow is likely at the end of the forecast period with models currently suggesting anywhere from .2 to .4 inches of liquid water equivalent. The models currently suggest however that the majority of the snow will occur after the end of the forecast period.

KBUF Day 7 Forecast Discussion

Models are running with surface cyclogenesis in the James Bay region (or slightly to the south) of Canada. Upper level dynamics support this as a broad trough has morphed into a desirable shape over the last 24 hours. The jet streak isn't all that it could be, but is forecast to strengthen.

The previous storm system will exit the area by the beginning of the forecast period, it's only lasting influence being the cold air advected during the previous period. Winds should have a westerly and southerly component for the next day, bringing in some warmer air. However, high clouds associated with approaching, strengthening system could limit heating. High temperatures should generally be expected in the upper 30's, maybe teasing 40ºF. As far as the low, it will come early in the period as the winds calm down a bit and before the clouds move in and inhibit cooling. Look for a minimum in the lower 20's. Winds should be generally light due to no significant pressure gradient and should reach a maximum during the afternoon mixing. Maximum 2min average should not exceed 15kts.

Precipitation is unlikely, though a brief flurry off of the lake is possible.


Cianca.

KBUF Day 6

High SFC pressure over the GLakes will hold the SFC flow northerly through the early afternoon Day 6. SFC high progression will turn SFC flow westerly in the afternoon. Strong winds tonight under the entrance region of jet max will settle to mid-teens KT for FC period with chance at max sustained coming with first reading of the period. Lack of solar heating will hold temps just below 30 for the entire FC period with the low coming in early am hours once mixing is somewhat slowed. Lingering LL cloud cover could produce light precip, but totals will be very low.

-Webb

Day 5 Discussion

Unseasonable temperatures over western NY will end tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. THE FROPA should be before the start of the forecast period. There will be light lingering precipitation through the early afternoon. A secondary low will form across the Ohio River Valley bring WAA aloft ahead of the warm front. Major icing and sleets will be the concern for the second half of the forecast period. Temperatures at the surface will remain steady throughout the day and into tomorrow night. The high temperature will be at the start of our forecast period so be careful.

Doc Ng

KBUF Day 4

Cold air dominates the entire area of the NE US. ULTrough axis moves through today bringing a short period of ML zonal flow before a weak shortwave arrives Fri afternoon. FC area ahead of shortwave and below jet max along with southerly winds at the surface most of Friday will bring instability and UL forcing. Precip. should begin mid day and accumulations should be light. Temps will warm in comparison to the last couple days and should top out in the low-mid 30's. Low temp at beginning of period and will most likely mirror the Depoint temp. Wind will strenghten in the early afternoon hours as the SFC pressure gradient strenthens.

-Webb

KBUF Day 3 Discussion

KBUF will be influenced by some cold air advection at the beginning of the period, and as a result, all the models suggest that the overnight low will be in the single digits. A couple of the models are suggesting that the low could dip down to 6. Warm air advection should commence toward the end of the forecast period, but the GFS and the NAM both suggest that the strongest warm air advection should occur near the very end of the forecast period while the NGM suggests that the brunt of the warm air advection will occur earlier. As a result, the GFS and NAM currently forecast highs of 16 and 15 respectively while the NGM currently forecasts a high of 19. The GFS and the ETA seem to be in strong agreement on the timing of the commencement of the warm air advection, so at this point, I would favor this solution. It should be noted that due to the forecast warm air advection at the end of the forecast period, there is a slight possibility that the high temperature for the forecast period may not occur in the afternoon when it usually does. The models are currently suggesting that the afternoon high temperature and the temperature at the end of the forecast period are going to be very close. As for the wind, the GFS and the NAM both suggest that the stongest wind for the forecast period will occur around early to mid-afternoon, but these two models do differ slightly on the maximum value. GFS currently forecasts a max of 9kts, and the NAM currently forecasts a max of 12kts. At this point, I tend to favor the higher value. With the storm moving out that gave Buffalo some snow, today's precip forecast should be easy. No new precip is expected by any of the models during this forecast period.

Kennedy

KBUF Day 2 Forecast Discussion

Strong storm system currently chowing down on the Northeast United States. Both ETA and GFS models in agreement about pacing of the system and have been handling it well so far, so will keep a good mind to the track as it exits the CONUS. Plenty of wrap-around moisture available with this system, so even though it will be off coast by mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will still be around. Winds will be from the north and eventually shift to a more westerly component. Though buffalo is not on the direct coast of Lake Ontario, the lake (water temperatures in the mid-thirties) will have allow for precipitation enhancement during the forecast period. An additional two to three inches of snow could fall, but will not compare with today's amounts. Very cold airmass to the north and plenty of cold air advection will keep temperatures down considerably with a daytime heating max struggling to reach 20ºF. In fact, the high should come at the very start of the forecast period and will likely be in the mid to lower twenties. As far as a low temperature, again, look to the end of the forecast period. Continuing cold air advection, but clearing skies and calmer winds will see the temperature drop into the low teens. On to the wind, the NGM is showing higher winds during the day, but the temperature values seem a bit silly ... so will ignore that model for now. The max gradient should occur in the morning hours when the CAA is the strongest.

Cianca.

KBUF Day 1 Discussion

"Big Storm Coming!" -Dr. Ng

Surface low currently over eastern Kansas, Upper level low northwest with isallobaric maximum to the east. The GFS has the low dipping south slightly before deepening and making its way up the east coast. The wind will definitely increase as the isobars tighten and the pressure gradient increases. The ETA seems to be in agreement with the low placement just off the coast. Precipitation should start around lunch time, if not, slightly after (ETA). High winds off of the ocean should ensure plenty of moisture for this storm. MOS data points to about category 2-3 precip amounts and highs in the mid to upper 30s, lows in the upper 20s. Overcast and precip totals should limit daytime heating.

The Bri and Karissa Experience.

KCEC Day 8

The (Feb 21st 00z) GFS has the upper level and surface lows stacked right off the coast of Oregon at the start of the forecast period. The low should weaken and ride northward along the coast. Precipitation in association should be ongoing at this point and be sustained by instability and forcing introduced by weak coat-tails shortwave pushing through. The shortwave is followed by slight ridging in advance of the next, more powerful storm system that will impact the area over the weekend. So, toward the end of the period, precipitation should diminish and then stop, making way to partly cloudy skies and subsidence. Winds should be initially strong with a decent gradient at the beginning but eventually weaken after the sun rises. The very beginning of the forecast period should see the strongest winds, possibly approaching a two-minute average of 15-20kts. The most recent GFS MOS(6z) has stepped up winds in the early period, contrasting it with the much lower estimation from the Eta MOS. We'll see some cold air advection after 12z or so and that will keep temperatures down, but not too far considering the wind will be off the water. The forecast period temperature minimum should come at the very end of the period with clear skies and light winds, plus some good radiational cooling with the ground being fairly wet from earlier rains will get the temperature down into the lower 40's.. The maximum temperature will not do much to surpass 50ºF. Rainfall amounts are hard to predict considering it will come from a shared storm from the day before. A half of an inch would not be out of the question.

Cianca.

KCEC Day 7

Another tricky forecast for Thursday folks. Not much int he way of curveballs coming, just more unpredictable precip amounts. Throw a number out there and watch those totals amaze like day 5. More southerly winds ahead of another PAC CF which is likely to pass in the early morning hours Friday, triggering rain showers ahead of it that should sustain throughout the day Thurs. Highs will be of the persistant variety and lows should do about the same. Winds will be southerly and somewhat light but will become higher with the tightening gradient ahead of the PAC L. Max wind values will come at the end of the period.

-Webb

KCEC Day 6 Forecast Discussion

Precipitation will be moving through the area throughout the day on Tuesday, and some of this precipitation will likely occur into the early part of the forecast period on Wednesday. Skies will likely be very cloudy or completely overcast during the period with flow coming in off the Pacific. With this flow off of the Pacific during the period, the low for the forecast period will likely not be able to get quite as low as the models are projecting right now, and the high will likely not be able to get quite as high as the models are projecting right now. A closer range for the diurnal maximum and minimum seems more reasonable as well given the flow off the Pacific and the overcast skies. Maximum wind will likely occur soemtime during the early to mid-afternoon hours with a maximum wind somewhere near 14 to 15 knots.

Day 1 KCEC Discussion

A line of showers associated with a cold front will move into the area tomorrow late morning to early afternoon. Winds will be southerly most of the day along will an overcast sky coverage. Temperature will be moderate for the forecast period in the low 50s during the day and low 40s during the early morning. Wind prediction could be a concern as the front approaches the wind speed will vary greatly.


Ng

KCEC Day 4 Discussion

First, skies are forecast to be clear by all models throughout the forecast period. Air will be fairly dry with the wind blowing towards the Pacific, and look for this drier air to allow the overnight low temperature to drop into the neighborhood of the upper 30s. At this point, both the NAM and the GFS suggest the low to be in the upper 30s. Winds will be likely be calm during this period, and with the clear skies and dry air, it is certainly possible for the high to reach the upper 50s. At this point, the GFS suggest a high near 54, and the NAM suggests a high near 59. 59 might be a tad high, but given the likely dry air and calm winds resulting in plenty of sunshine during the day, this is certainly possible. If I had to make my day four forecast right now, I would probably put my high at about 57 or 58, but we'll see what the models spit out tomorrow and see if there are any major changes. Clear skies will also result in no precipitation for the forecast period, so don't be like that one dude I saw today who put in 20 inches of rain for his forecast. That's just stupid.

KCEC Day 3 FD

High pressure is the name of the game, dominating the forecast period. Gradient will gradually loosen through the day, easing off on the wind. As the high moves on shore, the wind direction should shift from north to a more easterly component. This could cause some compressional warming off of the Klammath Range. With all the subsidence, precipitation is out of the question and unless the wind really dies, cloud cover should be at a bare minimum.

Morning low could drop into the mid-30's with any calming over night. The colder, drier airmass supports this. As far as the high, clear skies, with offshore winds and compression, we could see upper 50's, maybe even 60º. As far as wind, the gradient should decrease, but differential heating (between land and ocean) in the afternoon could cause a good breeze.

Cianca

KCEC Day 2

High pressure ridging over Pac keeps UL pressure gradient N of general FC area. Blocking pattern off Baja keeps ridge in place until Tuesday evening where a weak SW will begin to prog. through Wash and BC. FC area stays S of trough but with axis moving through, could set up a weak baroclinic zone just north of the area along with a bit of weak UL forcing. Look for partly skies Wed with Highs in the low 50's and Lows following the dewpoint at around 40 F. Winds will be Northerly and will strengthen a bit as the afternoon progresses. Max sustained around 10KT. Light rain/drizz is possible in the early morning. but accumulations will be insignificant.

-Webb

Day 1 Discussion

Terrain will play a role in forecasting for the next two weeks so be careful.

A large upper-level ridge is positioned over western Canada. This ridge will break down as a strong shortwave trough forces its way into the Pacific NW. The Polar Front Jet will remain quite active during the forecast period over the same region. Along the coast of California, an inverted trough has developed and will remain in place for the next 36 hrs.

The models are in disagreements over the temperature and wind. The high temperature for the Day 1 forecast will be slightly above normal according to the GFS while the Eta has the temperature steady through the first part of the period and dropping to its lowest point at the end. The wind speed also varies between the models as well with GFS producing higher wind speed at the end of the Day 1 forecast. Although the Eta has precip in its forecast, I do not think the precip will be a significant amount. It would be wise to leave your precip amount as 0.00.

Doc Ng

Wind Climo for KCEC from 2003-2007

Climo Peak Wind Observation for KCEC (2003-2007)

Maximum Wind Histogram for Crescent City, CA from 2003-2007 (courtsey of Dr. Wagner).
View Larger Image

Crescent City, CA - KCEC

Here is the 411 on Jack McNamara Field Airport (Crescent City, CA)

Identifier: KCEC
Elevation: 57 ft. / 17.4 m (surveyed)
From city: 3 miles NW of CRESCENT CITY, CA
Time zone: UTC -8
Normal High: 54-55°F
Normal Low: 41°F
Normal Precipitation: 0.33"
Normal Wind Speed: 6 knots


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Doc

KMSY Day 8

Relative to five of our previous seven forecasts for KMSY, day 8 is rather BORING! The Mardi Gras Black Majic witch has given us a break. While the forecast is much easier to determine, scoring against other forecasters will be much tougher.

A relaxed gradient along with mean high Pressure over the gulf will keep sfc winds light. A weak disturbance to the NW of the FC area will be blocked out by the H for the FC peroid. FC area will be upstream of UL trough axis reinforcing mean H.

Looks for winds out of the SW becoming south. Max sustained winds should not exceed 10KT.
Low temp will come at the beginning of the peroid and should bottom out around 40, maybe a bit higher. Keep an eye on the dewpoint as the day rolls along.
High temp will come past the peak of SFC heating and should top out somewhere near 70.

-Webb

KMSY Discussion for 06Z to 06Z Day 7 of WX Challenge

Drier air will be moving into the greater New Orleans area tomorrow following the departure of the system that will be bringing precip into the area today. Winds will not be bringing in vast amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico during day three as will likely be the case today. Also following the departure of the disturbance, winds will be calmer on day 3 with surface winds likely maxing out around 10-11kts. The GFS and the NAM both agree on the high for day 3 at 62, but disagree somewhat on the forecast low. GFS currently forecasts a low of 46, and NAM currently forecasts a low of 39. During the overnight hours, surface winds will be shifting to out of the north most likely meaning that the surface winds will be blowing off of Lake Pontchartrain. Given this and the fact that I don't see the kind of cold air advection I'd like to see in order for the low to get down into the 30s, I think a low somewhere in the low to possibly mid-40s is more likely. However, dewpoints will probably be low enough, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a low somewhere in the low 40s. With dry air in place during day 3, no rain is expected during the forecast period.

KMSY Day 2 Discussion:

The vigorous system which will bring severe weather to the lower Mississippi Valley today will sweep through the forecast area early in the period. Very warm and moist airmass ahead of the approaching system could lead to decent precipitation totals. Precipitable water is close to 2" the system is strong enough to tap into a good amount. Models suggest a quarter to half inch of precipitation is expected with the passage and I tend to agree. Stiff southerly winds should keep moisture and temperature levels up until the point of passage. After the early morning passage, winds will shift around to the northwest, bringing cooler, drier air into the picture. Winds shouldn't stay very strong for long as high pressure settles in and the gradient weakens. There may be some remnant low clouds Wednesday morning, so the temperature shouldn't drop too much, even after the passage. Day 2 low should come at the end of the forecast period with clear skies and dry air. Day 2 maximum will be with max heating in the afternoon. The highest winds should come with the tightest pressure gradient during passage and possibly with associated thunderstorms. Could see winds near 20kts. Min: 45-50, Max: 58-63, Precip: 0.15" - 0.50"

Cianca

Day 1 WX Discussion

An ETC is progged to intensify across the south-central US from Tues to Wed. The system should make its way across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio river Valley as it marches across the country. The low temperature for KMSY should remain above normal as a strong LL southerly flow will bring in an ample amount along with warmer temperature from the Gulf. Early morning LL cloudcover should give away to sunshine during the early afternoon. CAPE values will approach 1200 J/Kg with slight LL veering. Isolated storms will develop ahead of the cold front. Convective initialization withthis first batch of precip will be the key. The FROPA passage will be a difficult decision as well. Presently, it is forecasted to occur between Day 1 and Day 2 period. As the front approaches, a second round of steadier precip will fall on KMSY.

Doc Ng

Models

I stumbled across these models, and wanted to share them with you.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/

Hope these are helpful!

New Orleans, Day 4 Forecast Discussion

Day 3's strong low will exit the region by the beginning of the Day 4 forecast period. A few clouds may linger, but the dry air pushing in from the northwest should quickly push out remaining clouds. Dry air and clearing skies should allow for significant cooling overnight. In addition, moisture on the ground from Day 3's likely precipitation could further exacerbate cooling. Lows in the upper 30's will not be surprising, though breezy winds could keep the air mixed enough to hover around the 40º mark, especially if they maintain a more northerly wind component, bringing them over Lake Pontchartrain.

Daytime winds will eventually weaken. Skies should be clear for most of the day as the air will be farily stable. High temperatures may have trouble recovering due to a colder airmass. With calmer winds later, the high temperature may come late in the afternoon and should approach 60º. Models are keeping the high closer to 55º, however. Toward the end of the forecast period, the winds should switch around to the south as a new low forms in the panhandles.

Cianca

Discussion: Day Three

Severe weather is not out of the question for the forecast period and actually quite likely. The trough axis will stay west of the FC area due to a blocking L in the great lakes region. FC area downstream of UL trough will give substantial UL forcing along with L-ML speed and directional shear. CAPE values above 500 and near 1000 are not OOQ with minimal capping but enough for T-Storm development. Most severe weather will stay N and W of the FC area but Storm cell tracking especially late afternoon into the evening will be essential for southern Louisiana. T-storms will move out of the FC area along with the CF late Thursday night taking POPS with. Updates will be needed to evaluate precip amounts. Overrunning ahead of the CF should bring showers early in the day. High near 70 mid afternoon with the low coming at the end of the period at or near 50 degrees F. Strong winds related to the SFC based convection and FROPA with speed values in the mid 20'sKT. Precip amounts for the forecast period anywhere between .20 and 1.0".

-Webb

KMSY Discussion relevant from 06Z to 06Z Day 2 of Wx Challenge

Look for FROPA around 04-05Z (10:00-11:00 CST) just before the start of the forecast period. As a result of this, no precip should be expected during this forecast period since the precip is going to be ahead of this front. Pressure gradient forcing will cause some very windy conditions following FROPA, so look for strongest winds to be toward the beginning of the forecast period (possibly upwards of 24-26kts, gusting higher). GFS suggests that the overnight low could get down to 41. While this is certainly possible, looking at the models right now makes me think that a low of 43-45 is more plausible. If it were less windy and less mixing were taking place during the beginning of the forecast period during the overnight hours, then 41 would be more plausible in my mind. It is worth noting however that the surface wind will likely be out of the north during the beginning of the forecast period and Lake Pontchartrain does lie to the north of New Orleans. Since the wind will be off of the lake tomorrow morning, I went ahead and checked the water temperature of the lake, and it is approximately 49 degrees. Taking into account the fact that much mixing will be taking place with high winds at the beginning of the forecast period and that the wind at the surface will be off of the lake to the north (i.e. slightly more moist air than would otherwise be present with the absence of a lake to the north) makes me think that the low temperature during the beginning of the forecast period might be a tad higher than the models are currently suggesting. As for the high temperature during the forecast period, cooler air will move into the area following the passage of the front, so the high won't be anywhere near the high for today (1/29). However, since this air will be dry with dewpoints in the lower 30s (low dewpoints for a coastal area such as New Orleans), it will take less energy to heat up this drier air as opposed to the more normal moist air, so the high will likely be able to reach into the mid-50s. GFS is the highest forecast high right now of anybody with 57, and NAM is the lowest with 51. With dry air and clear skies in the area during the morning and afternoon hours of the forecast period, the GFS solution with regard to the high temperature makes more since to me at this point. If not 57 exactly, the high should be closer to 57 than 51. The wind will also be dying down during the course of the forecast period further suggesting to me that the high will be closer to 57 than 51. Hope this gives you all some things to think about while making your forecast, and good luck to everyone participating this semester in the Weather Challenge!

Wind Climo for KMSY from 2003-2007

Climo Peak Wind Observation for KMSY (2003-2007)

Maximum Wind Histogram for New Orleans, LA from 2003-2007 (courtsey of Dr. Wagner).
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Creole and Weather..Perfect Combo

Here is the 411 on Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport (New Orleans, LA):

Identifier: KMSY
Elevation: 4 ft. / 1.2 m (surveyed)
From city: 10 miles W of New Orleans, LA
Time zone: UTC -6
Normal High: 62-64°F
Normal Low: 44-45°F
Normal Precipitation: 0.20"
Normal Wind Speed: 8-9 knots


Doc